Market update: “Good news is good news” eventually

A shockingly strong nonfarm payroll report knocked Treasuries for a loop. Global markets have been left reeling from the FOMC’s pivot, the BoE’s second rate hike and the aggressive voting pattern, as well as the hawkish shift from ECB Lagarde’s press conference. Wall Street turned mostly higher in afternoon trade. The market struggled early on following the stronger jobs report, which weighed on sentiment, in a case of good news is bad news for stocks (Fed rate hikes).

Treasury yields jumped on the data as the headlines more than surprised even the strongest forecast, and especially the whisper number which hinted at a -400k decline in jobs due to Omicron. The 0.7% surge in earnings to $31.63 m/m, a new all-time high, and a 5.7% y/y clip, the fastest since March 2020, added to Fed worries and increased the risk for a 50 bp rate liftoff in March and a faster string of hikes this year. Rates continued to cheapen through the afternoon as sell stops were tripped. Bearish options plays added to the selling, as did the advent of the $110 bln in auctions next week.

• China returns from a week-long Lunar New Year break.

• USD (USDIndex- 95.50).

• US Yields –The rally on Wall Street further pressured Treasuries, but with no one willing to step in front of this bear train, yields continued to climb and ended the week sharply higher. Now, the 2-year has cheapened almost 13 bps to 1.326%, while the 3-year was over 12 bps higher at 1.585%. The 10- and 30-year yield rose 10 bps and 8 bps respectively to 1.935% and 2.235%.

• Asian stock markets were under pressure overnight, with Japan’s tech sector in particular struggling. China bourses rallied in catch up trade, despite a drop in the Caixin General Services PMI to a 5-month low of 51.4, from 53.1 in December. Australia retail sales also dropped for the first time in four months.

• Equities– JPN225 is down -0.7%. The USA100 advanced 1.58%, with the USA50052% firmer, while the USA30 slid to a -0.06% loss. GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.8% and 0.4% respectively.

• German industrial production contracted -0.3% m/m in December, and was down -4.1% y/y in December. Production lifted 3.0% in 2021 compared to 2020, but was still down -5.5% compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019. Clearly virus developments and supply chain disruptions continued to weigh on overall output, in particular in Germany’s important car industry.

• UK– Complicating the picture is a political crisis. Prime Minister Boris Johnson faces anger over a series of missteps, not least the alcohol-fuelled parties held at Downing Street during coronavirus lockdowns. The coming days could bring more clarity on his future.

• USOil– Spiked to $92.00 – 7-year highs – amid fear of supply disruptions from a multitude of geopolitical flare-ups, above all, a possible Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europe is scrambling to find alternatives to Russian gas, while US winter storms at a time of general underproduction are an added problem.

• Gold– back above 1800 to $1812.

• Bitcoin up to $42,708.

• FX markets– EUR is broadly lower this morning, but EURUSD is up to 1.1426, USDJPY up to 115.27 & Cable to 1.3538.

European Open – EGBs have found buyers in early trade, with a weaker than expected German production number at the start of the session adding some support. The short end continues to underperform as investors adjust their central bank outlooks, with those caught wrong-footed by Lagarde last week now risking overcorrecting expectations, and it may take some time before there is a new equilibrium. We still think Q4 is the most likely timing for a first move – in December, if inflation pressures calm somewhat, or October, if Covid-19 restrictions fade faster than anticipated and the tensions with Russia over Ukraine ease quickly.

Today – Company reports and central bank outlooks remain in focus at the start of the week, but for now confidence seems to be holding up. Today’s slate has just US December consumer credit. Earnings include Amgen, Southern Copper, Simon Property, Tyson Foods, ON Semi, Zimmer Biomet, Principal Financial, Take-Two Interactive, Loews Corp., Hasbro, and CNA Financial. There is Fedspeak later in the week with Bowman, Mester, and Barkin. Data includes trade, the NFIB small business survey, claims, and consumer sentiment.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (-0.44%) Dip to 1.4525 before rebounding again in EU open at 1.4568. Fast MAs turned higher again but MACD and RSI remain close to zero.