Mario Blascak, PhD
Independent Analyst
- German manufacturing PMI decelerated to 52.2 while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI decelerated to 52.0 in October. Learn the causes of deceleration of the Eurozone PMI by reading my Analysis here.
- The US non-farm payroll report came out strong for October with headline NFP reaching forecast-beating 250K and wages rising 3.1% over the year. The strength of the US labor market sets the stage for Fed to hike rates in December with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting getting markets ready.
- After a strong October labor market report, the CME Fedwatch tool indicates 81% chance of Fed rate hike to 2.25%-2.50% at December 18-19 policy meeting. The Fedwatch also implies 56% chance of Fed raising to 2.50%-2.75% at March 19-20 2019 policy meeting.
- China´s services PMI decelerated to 50.8 in October, down from 53.1 in the previous month while China´s president Xi promised to lower tariffs to increase imports and ease trade tensions.
Europe
- German manufacturing PMI decelerated to 52.2 while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI decelerated to 52.0 in October. Discover causes of deceleration of the Eurozone PMI by reading more in my Analysis here.
UK
- The UK construction PMI accelerated unexpectedly to 52.0 in October.
- UK services PMI is expected to decelerate to 53.3 in October.
US
- The US non-farm payroll rose 250K in October with wage growth accelerating to 3.1% y/y, the highest since May 2009. Even with headline NFP revised down to 118K from originally reported 134K, the job gains are massive, confirming my prediction based on ADP employment data.
Canada
- Canada’s employment increased by 11.2K in October after surging 63.3K in the previous month. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 5.8%.
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