Mario Blascak, PhD
Independent Analyst
What you need to know before markets open
In Europe
- A trade war could knock 3% off global GDP, the Bank of France study said.
- The IMF warns of the Eurozone growth risks being serious and could lead to a hard landing.
- No-deal Brexit would cost European Union 1.5% of GDP, according to the IMF.
- German PPI is set to rise by 0.2% m/m in June while increasing 2.9% y/y.
In the UK
- The UK retail sales slumped -0.5% m/m while core retail sales excluding motor fuel sales fell -0.6% m/m in June, further derailing the Bank of England from possibly hiking rates in August. For details read my Analysis here.
- The UK public sector net borrowing complements data-heavy week for the UK on Friday with net borrowing expected to reach £3.6 billion in June.
In the US
- The US weekly initial jobless claims rose 207K during the week ending July 14, the lowest level of claims since December 6, 1969.
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey accelerated to 25.7 in July, rising above expectations.
- President Trump says he is “not thrilled” about US interest rate hikes.
In Canada
- Canada is set to be in the spotlight on Friday with the release of two important macro indicators. Canada’s core inflation is set to rise by 1.4% y/y in June while retail sales are seen expanding by 0.5% over the month in May after auto sales are excluded. For details please read Yohay’s Preview here and check the details of how to trade it with USD/CAD here.
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