Market themes of the Day: King Dollar pulls back

Mario Blascak, PhD Independent Analyst

What you need to know before markets open
In Europe

A trade war could knock 3% off global GDP, the Bank of France study said.
The IMF warns of the Eurozone growth risks being serious and could lead to a hard landing.
No-deal Brexit would cost European Union 1.5% of GDP, according to the IMF.
German PPI is set to rise by 0.2% m/m in June while increasing 2.9% y/y.

In the UK

The UK retail sales slumped -0.5% m/m while core retail sales excluding motor fuel sales fell -0.6% m/m in June, further derailing the Bank of England from possibly hiking rates in August. For details read my Analysis here.
The UK public sector net borrowing complements data-heavy week for the UK on Friday with net borrowing expected to reach £3.6 billion in June.

In the US

The US weekly initial jobless claims rose 207K during the week ending July 14, the lowest level of claims since December 6, 1969.
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey accelerated to 25.7 in July, rising above expectations.
President Trump says he is “not thrilled” about US interest rate hikes.

In Canada

Canada is set to be in the spotlight on Friday with the release of two important macro indicators. Canada’s core inflation is set to rise by 1.4% y/y in June while retail sales are seen expanding by 0.5% over the month in May after auto sales are excluded. For details please read Yohay’s Preview here and check the details of how to trade it with USD/CAD here.

Author

Mario Blascak, PhD

Independent Analyst

Dr. Mário Bla&scaron;čák worked in professional finance and banking for 15 years before moving to journalism. While working for Austrian and German banks, he specialized in covering markets and macroeconomics.

EUR/USD holds firm above 1.1900 as US NFP looms

EUR/USD holds its upbeat momentum above 1.1900 in the European trading hours on Wednesday, helped by a broadly weaker US Dollar. Markets could turn cautious later in the day as the delayed US employment report for January will takes center stage.

GBP/USD remains above nine-day EMA near 1.3650

GBP/USD recovers its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 1.3680 during the European hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a sustained bullish bias, as the pair trades within an ascending channel pattern.

Gold sticks to gains near $5,050 as focus shifts to US NFP

Gold holds moderate gains near the $5,050 level in the European session on Wednesday, reversing a part of the previous day's modest losses amid dovish US Federal Reserve-inspired US Dollar weakness. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal ahead of the critical US NFP release.

US Nonfarm Payrolls expected to show modest job gains in January

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December.

S&P 500 at 7,000 is a valuation test, not a liquidity problem

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Bitcoin price slips below $67,000 ahead of US Nonfarm Payrolls data

Bitcoin price extends losses, and trades below the lower consolidating boundary at $67,300 at the time of writing. A firm close below this level could trigger a deeper correction for BTC. Despite the weakness in price action, institutional demand shows signs of support, recording mild inflows in ETFs so far this week.