How to trade the Canadian Retail Sales with USD/CAD

Selling USD/CAD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.79 deviation (0.63%) [SELL Pair]

• Key Support Level: 1.3065

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.79 or higher(0.63 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 45  pips in the first 15 minutes and 83 pips in the following 4 hours. 

1.3105 was a low point in mid-July, for two consecutive days. Close by, 1.3065 is a separator of ranges, working as support in July and as resistance in early June. Further down, 1.2950 worked as support in mid-June.

Buying USD/CAD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.67 deviation (-0.67%) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.3350

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.852 or less(-0.67 or lower in actual terms), the USDCAD may go up reaching a range of 52 pips in the first 15 minutes and 86 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.3260 capped the pair on July 18th and worked as support in late June. 1.3350 was a high point in late June and also in the past. The 2018 peak of 1.3380 looms above.

USD/CAD Levels on the Chart

More data

Retail sales are published relatively late in Canada, around six weeks after the month ends. Nevertheless, the behavior of consumers is critical to the economy, GDP calculations, and the decisions by the Bank of Canada.

In the last five releases, the USDCAD moved, on average, 13 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 35 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -2.38 regarding relative deviation and the USDCAD reached a ten pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 27 pips 4 hours after that.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.