"The exit poll has certainly produced a shock wave in markets, with disbelief and then a swift drop in the pound in FX markets. The FTSE 100 played catch-up as well, falling below the low of today’s session as traders digested the potential for a hung parliament.
Once again, it seems as if the British public has decided to surprise everyone. Now we have to wait for the results to start coming in, but markets will not like the idea of the Conservatives losing their overall majority. What is also interesting is the low total for the SNP, which will make life difficult for Labour in forming a coalition with them and the Lib Dems. This election has been getting more interesting over the past six weeks, and the uncertainty has just been ramped up more than a few notches."
Below are the latest predictions for the General Election results based on the prices from IG's trading markets. Time will tell whether the historical accuracy of exit polls is going to be tested:
- Conservatives –326 seats
- Labour –245 seats
- Liberal Democrats –15 seats
- Scottish National Party – 39 seats
- Conservative majority – 48%
- No overall majority - 52%
This information has been prepared by IG, a trading name of IG Markets Limited. In addition to the disclaimer below, the material on this page does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. IG accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at their own risk. Any research provided does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Although we are not specifically constrained from dealing ahead of our recommendations we do not seek to take advantage of them before they are provided to our clients.
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