Market reaction to Exit Poll & latest prices in trading markets

Chris Beauchamp IG

"The exit poll has certainly produced a shock wave in markets, with disbelief and then a swift drop in the pound in FX markets. The FTSE 100 played catch-up as well, falling below the low of today’s session as traders digested the potential for a hung parliament.

Once again, it seems as if the British public has decided to surprise everyone. Now we have to wait for the results to start coming in, but markets will not like the idea of the Conservatives losing their overall majority. What is also interesting is the low total for the SNP, which will make life difficult for Labour in forming a coalition with them and the Lib Dems. This election has been getting more interesting over the past six weeks, and the uncertainty has just been ramped up more than a few notches."

Below are the latest predictions for the General Election results based on the prices from IG's trading markets. Time will tell whether the historical accuracy of exit polls is going to be tested:

Conservatives –326 seats
Labour –245 seats
Liberal Democrats –15 seats
Scottish National Party – 39 seats

Conservative majority – 48%
No overall majority - 52%

Author

Chris Beauchamp

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