(PL) The zloty hit yet another five-month low on Thursday despite the fact that inflation has risen to zero earlier this week and PMI for November came out stronger than expected. The zloty is therefore seen at the weakest levels since the aftermath of the Brexit when it shortly breached EURPLN 4.50 level. Polish government bonds fell too and 10-year yield hit a 2-1/2 year high.
Today, the zloty may test this level again. Apart from US nonfarm payrolls report (which may be negative for US treasuries and hence for the zloty), a revision of Polish rating - or fears of possible downgrade - by S&P may undermine the zloty further.
(CZ) Revision of GDP figures for the third quarter of 2016 brought about no significant surprises. The growth remained at 1.9% Y/Y and in quarter-on-quarter terms it was revised down from 0.3% to 0.2%. Still, even the revised figures confirm marked slowdown of economic growth in the third quarter which was mainly caused by quarter-on-quarter decline exports. On the contrary, domestic demand, both for investment and consumption, increased.
As for the fourth quarter, we expect economic growth at about 2%. This would mean full year growth around 2.5%. For 2017 we expect economic growth around 2.5% as well but the structure may differ as growth could be driven more by investment.
LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
EURCZK | 27.06 | 27.05 | 0.06 |
EURHUF | 314.5 | 314.2 | 0.07 |
EURPLN | 4.491 | 4.472 | 0.41 |
LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (bps) | |
CZGB 10Y | 0.532 | 0.532 | 0.0 |
HUGB 10Y | 3.41 | 3.41 | 0.0 |
PLGB 10Y | 3.77 | 3.77 | 0.0 |
LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
PX | 885.1 | 885.1 | 0.00 |
BUX | 29998 | 29998 | 0.00 |
WIG | 48404 | 48404 | 0.00 |
This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops below 1.0800 after German Retail Sales data
EUR/USD has come under fresh selling pressure and trades below 1.0800 after the data from Germany showed that Retail Sales declined by 1.9% MoM in February. Resurgent US Dollar demand is adding to the downside in the pair. US data are next in focus.
GBP/USD stays weak near 1.2600 amid market caution
GBP/USD remains defensive near 1.2600 in European trading on Thursday. The hawkish tone from Fed Governor Christopher Waller keeps the US Dollar afloat amid a cautious trading environment ahead of key US data releases and the Good Friday trading lull.
Gold price bulls keenly await US PCE Price Index on Friday before placing fresh bets
Gold price (XAU/USD) continues with its struggle to make it through the $2,200 mark on Thursday and oscillates in a narrow trading band through the early part of the European session.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
The other terminal rate: How far will policy rates be cut?
Recent communication by the Federal Reserve and the ECB has made it clear that the first cut in official interest rates is coming. Both central banks are saying the same but the ECB communication is more opaque than that of the Fed.