Macro, FX & Rates: HU industrial production disappoints
Regional Overview
(CZ) Pace of growth of retail sales again slowed down in October. Year-on-year, retail sales decelerated to 2% (to 3.1% after adjusting for different number of working days). Month-on-month, retail sales fell by 0.3%. / Despite it came out below our expectations, the figures confirmed that consumption still continues to drive demand side of the economy and may even support inflation pressures. The structure of growth confirms that purchasing power of households has been improving.
(HU) GDP for the third quarter of 2016 was revised slightly to the upside from 2.0% Y/Y to 2.2% Y/Y and from 0.2% Q/Q to 0.3% Q/Q. / Hungarian GDP data beat the expectations. Economy increased by 2.2% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period of previous year while analysts anticipated only 2% growth. Better than expected GDP was mainly supported by market services and agriculture growth.
(HU) Industrial production for October came out below market expectations and reached -2.1% Y/Y. / Industrial production fell for the second consecutive month in year-on-year terms in October. A bit worrying may be the fact that production declined in almost all industrial sectors incl. car industry. Together with retail sales figures for October released yesterday, industrial production indicate that beginning of the fourth quarter has been quite weak and that GDP growth may not accelerate more significantly in the fourth quarter.
| LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
| EURCZK | 27.06 | 27.05 | 0.03 |
| EURHUF | 313.7 | 314.0 | -0.11 |
| EURPLN | 4.499 | 4.500 | -0.03 |
| LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (bps) | |
| CZGB 10Y | 0.519 | 0.503 | 1.6 |
| HUGB 10Y | 3.53 | 3.54 | -0.3 |
| PLGB 10Y | 3.74 | 3.76 | -0.6 |
| LAST | PREVIOUS | CHANGE (%) | |
| PX | 886.7 | 886.7 | 0.00 |
| BUX | 30100 | 30100 | 0.00 |
| WIG | 49647 | 49647 | 0.00 |
Author
KBC Market Research Desk
KBC Bank
