Macro Events & News

Andria Pichidi HFM

FX News Today

FOMC minutes of the June meeting were a little anti-climactic following Fed Chair Powell’s testimony. However, there were “many” indications that an easier policy stance was the more desired outcome.
10-year Treasury yields dropped -2.3 bp to 2.039% overnight, and reopened soft, stopped at 2.064% tailing out from the 2.057%
US stocks rise, yields drop, Powell’s testimony supported rate cut expectations.
The S&P 500 briefly topped the 3000 mark for the first time, but the index didn’t manage to hold these levels as stocks generally came off highs.
USD lower as Powell signals July FOMC rate cut.
The WTI future is trading at $60.57 per barrel, amid reports that Iranian boats attempted to “impede” the passage of a British tanker.

Charts of the Day

Technician’s Corner

FX Update: The USD posted fresh lows during the pre-Europe session in Asia as markets continued to readjust Fed easing expectations in the wake of Chairman Powell’s testimony yesterday, which was consistent with a 25 bp rate cut at the end of this month with an addendum stipulating that the Fed has the tools needed and could use them “aggressively” if necessary. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) has declined by about 0.6% over the last day, earlier printing a six-day low at 96.90, while EURUSD rose to a six-day high at 1.1280 and USDJPY posted a six-day low at 107.86. The U.S. currency saw a similar similar magnitude of decline against other currencies. In the mix has been an unexpected upward revision to June German HICP, to 1.5% y/y from 1.3% y/y, while news that Iran tried to intercept a British tanker in the Strait of Hormuz (London claiming that its navel ship HMS Monrose saw off three Iranian vessels with “verbal warnings”) saw front-month WTI crude prices spike above $60.0, the first time above this level since late May.

Main Macro Events Today

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to hold at 1.3% y/y for June.
Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – May’s CPI has been estimated at a -0.1% drop for headline PPI in June, and a 0.2% rise in the core index. As expected readings would result in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI, slowing from a 1.8% pace in May, and a 2.1% y/y rise for the core, versus 2.3% in May.
Fed Chair Powell Testimony 2nd day (USD, GMT 14:00)

Support and Resistance levels

Author

Andria Pichidi

HFM

Having completed her five-year-long studies in the UK, Andria Pichidi has been awarded a BSc in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Bath and a MSc degree in Mathematics, while she holds a postgraduate diploma (PGdip) in

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