Macro Events & News

Dr. Nektarios Michail HFM

FX News Today

10-year Treasury yields are up 0.2 bp at 2.704% and JGB yields fell back -0.8 bp to -0.025% as the rally on stock markets faded.

Wall Street still closed with slight gains, but there wasn’t enough momentum to sustain a further broad move higher in Asia.

Topix and Nikkei closed little changed, the Hang Seng is down -0.26% while CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up 0.33% and 0.13%, after Chinese data showed a rebound in exports at the start of the year.

The tech hub of Shenzhen outperformed with a gain of 0.93%, but the ASX also closed with a marginal loss.

US futures as well as European futures are moving higher though, so there is still some life in markets after reports that the U.S. is considering delaying China tariffs for 60 days. President Trump had already told reporters that trade talks are making good progress.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

EU GDP – The common currency’s GDP is expected to have grown by 1.2% y/y on the final quarter of the year, the same growth rate recorded in Q3.

US Retail Sales – One of the most important indicators of consumption, Retail sales ex Autos are expected to have grown by 0.1% m/m in December, compared to 0.2% m/m in November.

US PPI Inflation – In accordance to the slowdown picture in the US, PPI inflation is expected to have slowed to 2.5% y/y in January, compared to 2.7% y/y in December.

US Jobless Claims – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 1.74M on the week ending at January 8, compared to 1.736M last week. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have decreased to 225K compared to 234K on the previous week.

Support and Resistance

Author

Dr. Nektarios Michail

HFM

With more than 4 years of experience at the Central Bank of Cyprus where he obtained hands-on experience with real-life economics, Dr Nektarios Michail is a supporter of a balanced approach between science and art when it comes to

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.