Macro Events & News

Dr. Nektarios Michail HFM

FX News Today

10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.690% but JGB yields are up 1.3 bp at -0.016%, despite a -0.59% decline in the Nikkei and a 0.83% drop in the Topix amid another mixed session in Asia.

Japanese shares were hit by corporate earnings, while the ASX continued to rally, gaining 1.10%, in tandem with local bonds after the dovish shift at the RBA this week.

The RBI meanwhile surprised with a cut in the repo rate by a quarter point. Hong Kong and China remained closed and despite some movement, investors continue to hold back ahead of the next round of US-Sino trade talks next week.

US futures are heading south despite a cautiously upbeat assessment of the economy from Fed Chairman Powell, who said “the US economy is now in a good place”.

The front end WTI future managed a session high of USD 54.04 before falling back to USD 53.79 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

Theresa May meetings in Brussels – Theresa May and European Commission’s president will meet today, with the UK PM hoping to obtain fresh concessions, despite the EU’s insistence that it will not renegotiate the Brexit deal. In late afternoon, May is also expected to meet with Donald Tusk, the European Council President.

BoE Interest Rate Decision – BoE is not expected to bring forth any changes to its interest rate policy ahead of a Brexit agreement and thus the rate is expected to remain at 0.75%.

BoE Carney Speech – Mark Carney is expected to speak along with other MPC members about the BoE inflation report.

Fed Clarida Speech – FOMC Member, Richard Clarida is due to speak at the Czech National Bank’s conference about the neutral interest rate, with audience questions expected.

Support and Resistance

Author

Dr. Nektarios Michail

HFM

With more than 4 years of experience at the Central Bank of Cyprus where he obtained hands-on experience with real-life economics, Dr Nektarios Michail is a supporter of a balanced approach between science and art when it comes to

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.