Macro Events & News

Dr. Nektarios Michail HFM

FX News Today

FX Update: The Dollar has been holding mostly narrow ranges against most other currencies, though USDJPY showed a fresh six-week high at 112.07 during early the Tokyo session before settling around the 111.80 mark. Other Yen crosses also registered new highs, before settling, with the Japanese currency following its usual inverse correlative pattern with global stock market direction. The USD index (DXY) has remained broadly unchanged on the day, at 94.50, consolidating yesterday’s losses after the US CPI release. EURUSD is also near net unchanged heading into the London interbank open, at 1.1695, holding just below yesterday’s two-week peak of 1.1701. Cable has similarly held steady near yesterday’s highs. US data releases are up today, including retail sales and industrial production, with risks to the upside.

Asian Market Wrap: 20-year Treasury yields are down -0.2 bp at 2.968%, the 10-year JGB yield is up 0.2 bp at 0.103%, while stock markets moved broadly higher during the Asian session, after a technology-led rise in US markets yesterday. Cautious central banks in Europe, hopes of fresh US-Sino trade talks and a larger-than-expected rate hike in Turkey all make for a positive backdrop to sentiment as the week draws to a close. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.91% and -0.97% respectively. The Hang Seng gained 0.87% and the CSI 300 is up 0.15%, Shanghai and Shenzen Comp are down -0.04% and -0.41% though after Trump cast some doubts over reports of a new round of talks with China and the investment slowdown worsened according to latest data, indicating that policies intended to boost investment growth have not made and impact yet. U.S. futures are moving higher in tandem with FTSE 100 futures and oil prices are slightly higher with the front end Nymex future trading at USD 68.83 per barrel.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

US Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to come out at 0.4% MoM in August, compared to 0.5% in July.

US Capacity Utilisation and Industrial Production Indices – Expectations – Both indices are expected to show the improvement in US macroeconomic developments over the past weeks, with Capacity Utilisation expected to stand at 78.2%, compared to 78.1% in July. Industrial production is expected to increase by 0.3%, compared to 0.1% last month.

US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Expectations – Sentiment is expected to increase, again given the improvement in US macroeconomic conditions, to 96.6 compared to 96.2 in July.

Support and Resistance Levels

Author

Dr. Nektarios Michail

HFM

With more than 4 years of experience at the Central Bank of Cyprus where he obtained hands-on experience with real-life economics, Dr Nektarios Michail is a supporter of a balanced approach between science and art when it comes to

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.