Lower Yields Are Bulls' Best Bet

Stock market bulls could catch a break if the retracement in Treasury yields continues for a while. The chart shows yields on the Ten-Year Note to have peaked last week at 3.42%.  The correction has since hit 3.30% and could conceivably go lower. Although my rally target at 3.59% lies significantly above, that target comes from the weekly chart, and charts of lesser degree look maxed out for the time being. If so, the bulls had better make hay while the sun shines, since a move in yields to new cyclical highs will weigh heavily on stocks and stifle their upward progress. Mortgage rates are already at their highest point in years, and it won’t be long before the negative impact on home sales that has already occurred will spread into auto leases.