USDCAD, H4 and Daily
The Greenback has also posted gains against most other currencies, most notably the Turkish Lira, which has tumbled to fresh record lows. The Dollar’s ascent has been concomitant with a bout of risk aversion on investor concerns about an escalating trade war, and the impact of US sanctions on Turkey and Iran.
Amid broad rally in the Greenback, USDCAD has lifted for a 2nd day, but also following a sharp retreat in oil prices, which provides a bearish lead for the Canadian Dollar. The pair is trading in the upper Bollinger Bands pattern, while it manage to extend gains up to 1.3121 above the 50-day SMA, at 1.3115. In the last hourly session, the pair moves southwards, rejecting the latest swing high and the Resistance area at 1.3123-1.3126, which comes between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level since 1.3385 peak on July 27 and the 200-period SMA in the 4-hour chart.
Hence the pair still holds a daily Resistance at the significant 1.3100 level. A Closing today above this level along with the positive daily momentum indicators, would suggest further move to the upside and a possible retest of the 50.0 Fib. level, around 1.3170 level. RSI just crossed 50 level, while MACD oscillator decreases above its signal line within the negative area, suggesting decline of the negative momentum. Daily Support comes at the confluence of 50-day EMA and the day’s open price at 1.3042.
Intraday, the pair is currently moving below R2, hence next Support holds at R1 lat 1.3075. Further losses below 23.6 Fibonacci retracement could suggest swing further to the downside at the 1.3008-10.
Focus will now turned to Canada releases the July employment report today, which it is widely expect to come at a 15.0k headline gain following the 31.8k gain in June. The unemployment rate is seen slipping to 5.9% after perking up to 6.0% in June from the 40-year low 5.8% in May. Total average hourly earnings are seen rising at a 3.7% y/y rate in July from the 3.6% clip in June, but still short of the 3.9% growth rate of May.
On the NAFTA front, both Canadian and Mexican officials have this week been expressing cautious optimism. Canada’s ambassador to the US MacNaughton said yesterday that the US and Mexico are getting close on NAFTA auto issues, but that the sunset clause is a sticking point for Canada, and that to get a deal everyone must show flexibility.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD fluctuates in daily range above 1.0600
EUR/USD struggles to gather directional momentum and continues to fluctuate above 1.0600 on Tuesday. The modest improvement seen in risk mood limits the US Dollar's gains as investors await Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech.
GBP/USD stabilizes near 1.2450 ahead of Powell speech
GBP/USD holds steady at around 1.2450 after recovering from the multi-month low it touched near 1.2400 in the European morning. The USD struggles to gather strength after disappointing housing data. Market focus shifts to Fed Chairman Powell's appearance.
Gold retreats to $2,370 as US yields push higher
Gold stages a correction on Tuesday and fluctuates in negative territory near $2,370 following Monday's upsurge. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield continues to push higher above 4.6% and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to gain traction.
XRP struggles below $0.50 resistance as SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit likely to enter final pretrial conference
XRP is struggling with resistance at $0.50 as Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are gearing up for the final pretrial conference on Tuesday at a New York court.
US outperformance continues
The economic divergence between the US and the rest of the world has become increasingly pronounced. The latest US inflation prints highlight that underlying inflation pressures seemingly remain stickier than in most other parts of the world.