Jobs Friday

USD: Jun '26 is Down at 99.140.  

Energies: Jun '26 Crude is Down at 92.56.

Financials: The Jun '26 30 Year T-Bond is Higher by 1 tick and trading at 112.0.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 160 ticks Lower and trading at 7571.00.

Gold: The Apr'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4490.30.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Down and Crude is Down which is not normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Higher.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Down.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded , all of Europe is trading Higher.  

Possible challenges to traders                                                  

• Average Hourly Earnings m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST.   Major.
• Non-Farm Employment Change is out at 8:30 AM EST.   Major.
• Unemployment Rate is out at 8:30 AM EST.  Major.      
• Consumer Credit m/m is out at 3 PM EST.   Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with Unemployment Claims pending.   The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Jun '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias and the markets didn't disappoint as the Dow gained 875 points, the S&P 31 but the Nasdaq dropped 23 on the session.  Given that today is Jobs Friday our will remain Neutral or Mixed. 

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

As of yesterday, we are still awaiting an impending agreement between Iran and the US. We are told that one is forthcoming, but no one knows when that will happen.  For the time being we will take each day as it presents itself.