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EUR/USD outlook: Looks for direction signal to end extended sideways mode

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

EUR/USD

The Euro firmed on Friday and probes again through initial barrier at 1.1635 (daily cloud base / daily Tenkan-sen) after short-lived cloud penetration on Thursday which left daily candle with long upper shadow.

Daily cloud continues to cap upticks for almost two weeks, contributing to overall bearish daily structure (cluster of converged DMAs stays just above the price and created several bear-crosses / 14-d momentum remains in negative territory).

On the larger timeframe, the price remains underpinned by ascending and thick weekly cloud for the ninth consecutive week, that contributes to mixed signals, keeping the price action in directionless mode and holding within 1.1595/1.1685 range, with violation of either range boundary needed to generate initial direction signal.

Res: 1.1664; 1.1685; 1.1697; 1.1712.
Sup: 1.1600; 1.1576; 1.1500; 1.1443.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

AUD/USD flirts with 0.7000, lowest since early August amid bullish USD

AUD/USD hits a fresh low since early August during the Asian session on Friday and looks vulnerable near 0.7000 after breaking below the 200-day SMA overnight. Against the backdrop of the hawkish Fed, a two-day rally in oil prices revives inflation fears and continues to push US bond yields to multi-year highs. Adding to this, geopolitical risks lift the US Dollar to a two-month high, overshadowing RBA rate hike bets and weighing on the pair.

USD/JPY pulls back from three-week high after failing near 159.00

USD/JPY edges lower during the Asian session on Friday, stalling its recent strong move to a three-week high of 159.00 as Japanese Yen bears turn cautious amid intervention fears. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a strong bullish undertone as the Fed's hawkish outlook and oil-driven inflation fears continue to push US bond yields to multi-year peaks. Furthermore, the BoJ's dovish rate hike last week might cap JPY and support spot prices.

Gold treads water below $4,300

Gold grabs some buying attention and advances marginally at the end of the week, partially retracing the weekly decline, although it is still navigating below the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce. The fresh selling bias on the Greenback and the modest decline in US Treasury yields appear to support the humble advance in the precious metal.

Week ahead: Rate hike bets face a crucial data week

Despite the solid drop from the mid-September high, oil prices remained in the driver’s seat for another week, setting the tone in financial markets. Six months have passed since the late-February start of the US-Iran conflict, and there is still no breakthrough in the stalled talks, despite pressure from regional leaders and the rest of the world.

CFTC Report: Defensive currency positioning takes hold

The week in one sentence: Sterling and Euro shorts deepened in the week to September 22, while Yen longs were cut sharply. Oil positioning improved despite a steep price decline, and Gold exposure remained crowded. The main signal was a more defensive currency positioning backdrop.

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The Fed and the BoJ have just done something remarkably similar. Both central banks raised interest rates by 25 bps last week, both are confronting inflation risks, and both signal that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.

EUR/USD outlook: Looks for direction signal to end extended sideways mode

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