Jobs Friday

USD: Mar '26 is Up at 98.795.  

Energies: Feb '26 Crude is Up at 58.29.

Financials: The Mar '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 3 ticks and trading at 115.09.

Indices: The Mar '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 20 ticks Higher and trading at 6967.00

Gold: The Feb'26 Gold contract is trading Up at 4482.80.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market.  The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, but the 30 Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Higher which is not correlated. Gold is trading Higher which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don't have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open. Asia traded Lower except the Shanghai and Singapore exchanges.  Currently all of Europe is trading Lower except the German Dax.

Possible challenges to traders

• Average Hourly Earnings m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Non-Farm Employment Change is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Unemployment Rate is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
• Building Permits is out at 8:30 AM EST. This is Major.
• Housing Starts is out at 8:30 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Prelim UOM Consumer Sentiment is out at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.
• Prelim UOM Inflation Expectations is out at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.
• FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 10 AM EST.  This is Major.       
• FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 1:35 PM EST.  This is Major.  

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT). They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:15 AM EST with no real news items pending at that time.   The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 8:15 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT and YM are both Mar '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Neutral or Mixed bias and the markets didn't disappoint as the Dow gained 274 points, the S&P gained one point, but the Nasdaq dropped 104.  Given that today is Jobs Friday we will maintain a Neutral or Mixed bias as the markets have never shown any sense of normalcy on this day.

Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

It looks as though the markets went sideways or Lower yesterday.Today we have Jobs Friday and will maintain a Neutral bias as is our custom.