It's a FOMC day! Whoopie! Not!

Good Day... And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! A real relaxing day for me yesterday, but it was a good thing I took my heart medicine, as my beloved Cardinals tried to give away another game last night, but prevailed instead beating the Giants 2-1... These "Cardiac Cardinals" in tribute to the former Big Red Football team that was here, have played 51 one-score games this year... So, thus the nickname... Each day I wait until the trees behind our house provide shade on the deck and then I go out and read... No sunshine on my bald head for me! The Moody Blues greet me this morning with their great song: Never Comes The Day... (we used to play that song when I was with the band)

Well, the SPTs that were in early yesterday, decided to take a pause, midday, but upon seeing the Physical buyers start to rally Gold / Silver the SPTs went right back to work... Of course, they were pointing to the rising 10-year yield that went over 5% yesterday, as to their cover, if you will, for shorting the metals.

The dollar remained trading at the overnight rate of 1,194 in the BBDXY throughout the day yesterday... So, in my mind, the mini-rally in the dollar is from PPT intervention... And they were not participating yesterday... I'm just saying... 

The price of Oil slipped a bit. After rising to $107 yesterday, it fired and fell back to end the day $103.00. And the 10-year I already told you gained yield again yesterday, which means the bonds were sold.. A friendly Spiderman reminder that in bonds, price and yield move vice-versus of each other... So, when bonds are getting bought, the yield goes down, and the opposite when bonds get sold... And getting sold is what's going on here... 

Well, another Spiderman friendly notice... there will be no Pfennig this Thursday, and that's an oncologist and treatment appt. Early in the morning... And then next Tuesday I go back to get the stapled out of my head, so no Pfennig then either... Sorry, but dr appts take the top billing of my time... 

Well, after the STUPID CPI and corresponding PPI reports last week, the bets on a rate hike this week went from 58% to 85%... So, according to those folks betting that a rate hike will take place, you might as well book it! Not so fast there Tim... I'm still on the fence with the FOMC actually hiking rates... But, there will be no more waiting days for this to happen or not happen, as the FOMC meets this afternoon and decides and announces their decision... 

With the price of Oil continuing to rise, this has added pressure on the FOMC as they see the damage that these very high Oil prices are causing for everyone, especially the lower half of the K economy...  

In the overnight markets last night... the dollar got bought some more and starts today with a 1,197 level in the BBDXY... I think everyone is on board with a rate hike today, so they're buying the heck out of the dollar... But, when Inflation doesn't budge, what will the dollar buyers do then?  

Gold / Silver just can't seem to get past the STPs these days... Gold is down $12 to start the day, and Silver is up 1 penny... 

The price of Oil has slipped downward overnight, there must be a reason, but I can't find one right now.. Oil starts today at $104.90

The 10-year also slipped overnight, and trades this morning with a 4.999% yield... 

Here's the thing we need to look for IF the FOMC does hike rates... What message do they send to the markets, is this a one and done, or will there be more? Or, will the Fed heads give some opaque reason for hiking rates that leaves the markets scratching their heads.. The message will determine whether or not the bond boys decide to keep marking up the yield on bonds... Because they bond boys had made a statement with their marking up of bond yields that they were NOT happy with the FOMC for not hiking rates previously, so they decided to do the heavy lifting of yields... 

IF the FOMC does hike rates, then that will leave the door open for the Bank of Japan to hike rates too... The BOJ meets tomorrow.. 

This will lead to the POTUS getting very angry, as he 1. Wants lower rates and 2. Wants a cheaper dollar... And a rate hike will achieve neither of those two... 

The Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel chairman, Keven Warsh, and U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent are at odds... Bessent wants to provide strength for the dollar, but at the same time gets his cues from the POTUS... And the POTUS has his eye on the damage higher rates will do to an economy and their fiscal situation... While Warsh, is there to fight inflation... I take Warsh in a bout with Bessent... I'm just saying... 

OK, let's talk about something else besides a rate hike... 

You know, when I was leading the EverBank World Markets Div. I used to write a Sunday Pfennig about once a month... Well, the other day, my friend, David Gonigam of the 5 Bullets newsletter, was talking about Social Security and how it's supposed to be bankrupt in the next decade... He then entertained some ideas on how to keep SOC SEC going... And that got me thinking to one of the Sunday Pfennigs titled: Chuck's Debt Solutions... and how this was written a long time before David Gonigam began at Agora... or Paradigm Press.. Whatever they are these days... So, he wouldn't know that I put together a plan for Soc. Sec. That didn't involve printing new money to fund the Trust... 

Some of you might even remember that piece I did... I even did an investment conference where I repeated the Chuck's Debt Solutions... It's been a long time since I wrote that, and I have no idea where I might find it. So, you'll just have to trust me that I wrote it and it's out there in space somewhere... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard today has the FOMC meeting and announcement on the docket for today... Nothing else... So, the FOMC has the con... 

To recap... The dollar is on a mini-rally right now (remember a trend is not a one-way street) The SPTs are having their way with selling Gold/Silver short these days... Chuck thinks they realize that the summer if coming to an end, and historically Gold/Silver rally in the fall and winter... Chuck's looking for his Debt Solutions write up he did many years ago...

For What It's Worth... I came across this article and since I talked about U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent, and thought this is worthy... And it can be found here: Bessent dared bond traders to bet against him. They did, and won.

Or, here's your snippet: "Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears to be losing a tug-of-war with the bond markets he is also trying to influence.

In an effort to tamp down on longer-term interest rates and lower the government’s cost of borrowing, Bessent has resorted to an old playbook for tinkering with the bond market and its $30 trillion of U.S. debt backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.

But rather than fall in line, bond traders have taken the opposite side of the Trump administration’s trade, extending a sell-off of U.S. Treasurys and pushing interest rates to multiyear highs.

Now, the Trump administration may be running out of moves.

It all began last month, when Bessent made a surprise move and promised to “at least double” the government’s typical repurchases of government debt.

The administration hoped the announcement would stir more demand for bonds and lower market pricing on interest rates. That, in theory, would have reduced the cost for the U.S. government to pay its bills, as the nation’s debt crossed the $40 trillion mark.

In tandem with moves to stop the Japanese yen’s depreciation against the U.S. dollar, the messaging from the Treasury Department was clear: It wanted to stop the sell-off in U.S. Treasurys.

Bessent’s message to the market was clear, too: Don’t bet against me. “I have asymmetric information. I am the house now,” Bessent said at an event in Texas on Sept. 8. “You can bet against me if you want.”

Chuck again... And it looks as though the bond markets did bet against Bessent, and are winning... 

Market Prices 9/15/2026: A$ .7181, kiwi .5758, C$ .7239, euro 1.1545, sterling 1.3484, Swiss $1.2210, European Style: rand 16.2500, krone 9.3740, SEK 9.7755, forint 316.42, zloty 3.7602, koruna 21.0506, RUB 84.33, yen 155.15, sing 1.2729, HKD 7.8485, INR 95.96, China 6.7134, peso 17.14, BRL 5.1482, BBDXY 1,197, Dollar Index 99.61, Oil $104.90, 10-year 4.999%, Silver $63.36, Platinum $1,770.00, Palladium $1,369.00, Copper $6.42, and Gold $4,289

That's it for today... Big Day for rates today... I'll probably be napping when the decision is announced... Because, unless the FOMC is ready to hike rates to over 8% this one rate hike won't mean a hill of beans to inflation... I'm just saying... I actually got my Martin acoustic guitar out yesterday. I hadn't picked it up in over two years... Not that I'm going to start playing again, but I heard a song that I recalled playing years ago, just wanted to see if I recalled how to play it! The Marsall Tucker Band takes us to the finish line today with their great song: 24 Hours At A Time... I apologize for the tardiness of the letter this morning, I didn't get to sleep until 3:30 am last night, when I did get to sleep I turned off the alarm... I hope you have a Tom Terrific Tuesday today, and Please Be Good To Yourself!