Is there a COMPELLING REASON to SELL NOW?
WALL STREET, NEXT WEEK SEPTEMBER 24, 2018
FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER
- SEPTEMBER MARKETS
- UP STARS/DOWN STARS
- GOLDEN OPPORTUNITIES
- QUOTES
- ON THE WEB
- LETTERS
- IS IT TIME TO MAKE THE DONUTS? YES AND NO!
Beginning next week, markets sport a less favorable Risk/Reward on the long side. At the same time, a downside is likely limited, if at all, and of short duration.
Hence we STRONGLY advise either taking some chips off the table or place trailing profit stops. Fresh Shorting, however, will be selective e.g. TSLA ~ $300.
Earlier, we Tweeted:
Advise trailing profit stops next week on Regardless of any "October surprise" markets will be up Nov/Dec If BIG dip before US Midterms BUY!!
Positions + Gold, DJIA - US Bonds, BTC + Gold/- BTC + Copper/[- Oil closed] step reopen 72.50, 74, 76
SHORTING TRIGGERS ON WATCH:
SPX 2950+
BONDS ~3.20
Is there a COMPELLING REASON to SELL NOW? No, but we repeat it is prudent to consider reducing or adding protection this week and before US Midterm Elections.
Given “reasonable” Price Targets have been reached or exceeded, it is time to Protect (stops), Rotate and/or selectively Distribute/Sell.
If you are not an active trader, it is wise to protect profits with appropriate trailing stops, but also not to miss the part of the upcoming TRADE WAR VICTORY RALLIES.
- Over time employ Sector rotation into MAGA stocks;
- Using stops and hedging, raising cash and/or writing calls promotes sound sleep.
- New trades and some investments are in Long/Short Pairs
BOTTOM LINE:
Given rising inflation, geopolitical and trade war risks, emerging market concerns as well as frequent overvaluation, we advise to Take/Protect some Trading profits ahead of the Fall US Midterm elections.
While most “concerns” are merely noise; however, three factors we are watching are:
- The market’s short-term reaction to trade war issues
- The November US election anticipation & reactions: Be prepared to buy any serious dip circa the US Midterm elections!
- The 7th Fed interest rate increase in January or December can trigger a short-term drop in markets.
FASHION & INVESTING: 5 fierce Fashion Week trends that'll be everywhere next season
1. Daring Denim MARKET TRANSLATION: MAGA Stocks will continue to do well.
2 Tie-Dye MARKET TRANSLATION: Marijuana Stocks will remain popular investments
3. Bike Shorts MARKET TRANSLATION: Healthcare and lifestyle can win big
4. Fringe MARKET TRANSLATION: Bitcoin and CRYPTO will continue to command attention
5. Yellow MARKET TRANSLATION: OPTIMISTIC INVESTORS SUGGEST BUYING ON DIPS
Proper Valuations:
DXY ~ 94
OIL 65-70
TIPS 111 OB
US 10 Year Bond ~ 3+
IMHO “Improper” Valuations
COPPER < 3.20
BITCOIN > 2500
GOLD < 1375
SILVER < 18
TRADING NOTES
We are hardly bearish: given the growing strength of the US economy, company profits and labor market along with sky-high US consumer confidence and stock buybacks as well as President Trump’s 2018 Horoscope. While DJIA, NASDAQ & SPX HAVE ALL REACHED PROTECT ZONES as forecasted, they easily can rally higher as THE US TRADE WARS ARE WON!
Note we do not plan to short aggressively before early 2019 (or Late December 2018)
CURRENT POSITIONAL TRADES:
Triple Long DJIA 23860, 23960 & 24,334
Triple Long Gold 1290, 1280 & 1266
Triple Short Bonds 2.86, 2.78 & 2.84
Triple Short BTC 19,000, 7400, 6200
TRADING HEDGES:
Sell Oil 73.50/Buy Copper 2.95 Oil unwound 68.00 Resell 72.5.40 MIT
Sell Oil 74.00/Buy Copper 2.83 Oil unwound 66.20 Resell 74 MIT
Sell Oil 73.33/Buy Copper 2.75 Oil unwound 68.20 Resell 76 MIT
Buy Gold 1188/Sell BTC 6380
Buy Gold 1182/Sell BTC 6650
Buy Gold 1196 /Sell BTC 7370
EY DATES: SEPTEMBER 25/26/27
DJIA: 26616 PIVOT
SPX: 2888 PIVOT R1 2900 R2 2950 R3 3000
NASDAQ: R 1 8000 R2 8200 R3 8500
GOLD: 1200 PIVOT
SILVER: 1400 SUPPORT R1 1500 R2 15.50 R3 16 R4 16.50 R5 18
OIL: R1 72.50 R2 74 R3 76
COPPER: STEADY ACCUMULATE: H2 2018-2019 à3.50+
US 10 year IT à3.20
BITCOIN: 7200 RESISTANCE S1 6600 S2 6600 S3 6200 H2 2018 à 5000 OL
TIPS: TIP H2 2018 à 1.11-
The Market Marker remains some cautious concern.
2017 CLOSE: DJIA 24719 SPX 2673 & NASDAQ 6903
2016 CLOSE: DJIA 19762 SPX 2238 & NASDAQ 5383
2015 CLOSE: DJIA 17425 SPX 2044 & NASDAQ 5007
AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1375
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.
2. Begin to prepare a list of the price of stocks you own you want to sell (or stop) and those you wish to buy following any BIG market upset.
Favorite “no-brainer” Fundamental based Short:
Tesla (TSLA) ~$300 Target: $255 or $215 TBD
3. Gold Is Cheap. Inflation Is Coming. You Do the Math
HW: Short-term negative Astro for gold will soon be fading.
We continue to recommend Maximum Allocation or fresh precious and base metal investments for the intermediate and long-term, given that the precious metal sector and copper are obviously very undervalued!
Despite headwinds from US interest rates rising, there will be less competition from MMJ & Bitcoin “investors” intermediate and long-term.
Despite reducing the Fair Value of Gold $15 to $1375, a $1400 test by 2019 target seems reasonable. With seasonal strength soon be upon us and with unfavorable astro ending soon by October, we advise patient precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection as a slowly rising tide does not float all boats equally.
Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.
For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!
Gold FV $1375 = Commodity FV: 1332 + Currency FV: 1380 + Inflation Metal FV:1380 + Crisis FV: 1408.
Gold/Silver ratio à 74 Silver FV $18+.
INVESTORS: We plan to stay LONG in H2 2018 (recommending a precious metal sector hold rating and only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).
We remain disinclined to short or sell until gold is overvalued e.g. $1400-1450. For silver, our first selling numbers remain at $21+.
4. “The U.S. economy is in a good place right now.”
Scott Anderson, chief economist, Bank of the West
HW: You betcha!
“There’s little hope for positive momentum until China’s economy revives or it reaches a trade truce.”
Brock Silvers, Managing Director, Kaiyuan Capital
HW: We see a brief window for this November to December.
.
“Number one, you have to get the outcome correct, and number two, you have to get the market reaction correct. A lot of people got both wrongs in the past election.”
Jon Adams, senior investment strategist, BMO Global Asset Management
HW: We didn’t; we got it right on both counts. Renumber two ahead, we see a market rally in November/December.
6. READER: What’s your thinking on silver? If it hasn’t already bottomed its gotta be damn close.
HW: I agree it is smart to accumulate circa $14 zone.
Author
Henry Weingarten
The Astrologers Fund
Henry Weingarten, was the founder of the NEW YORK SCHOOL OF ASTROLOGY and the NY ASTROLOGY CENTER and has been a professional astrologer for over forty years.
