Is there a compelling reason to sell in March?

FINANCIAL ASTROLOGY FOR THE SUCCESSFUL INVESTOR AND TRADER

1.UNEXPCTED OUTCOMES

Is there a COMPELLING REASON to SELL IN MARCH?  Despite other’s concerns over the March FED meeting,  we do NOT see 4 raises in 2018.  If so, markets will feel “relieved”. 

Given inflation concerns, upcoming high geopolitical risk [North Korea & ME] and overvaluation, markets are likely to be mixed with a modest range bound upward bias into March. Thereafter, a classic seasonal and astrological reason to sell and protect by late April.

BOTTOM LINE:

Despite our forecast for a Spring pullback, we are not likely to short aggressively until 2019!

Proper Valuations:

US 10 Year Bond > 2.80

OIL > $60

TIPS ~ 111

COPPER > $3.20

IMHO “Improper” Valuations

Bitcoin > 2500

GOLD < 1388

SILVER < 18

NASDAQ > 6500

TRADING NOTES

• We are hardly bearish: given the increasing strength of the US economy as predicted along with sky high US consumer confidence.
• We continue to recommend selling or protecting Nasdaq when above 7000 and DJIA 25000 and technically shorting circa or above 7500 and 26200 respectively.
• Given markets “corrected” 10% - earlier than we expect (March/April), we expect now markets to rise most of February and much of March but RANGE BOUND!

HYDE PARK SOAPBOX: Increased Interest Rates Could Cause A Drop In Oil Prices 

ON THE ROAD AGAIN

March 4-8 Toronto

April 3- 12 Hong Kong

April 13-14 Singapore (tentative) 

KEY DATES:      FEBRUARY 27, MARCH 19-21

DJIA:                    25,000 +/- ~ 1200 points

SPX:                     2700 +/-  ~120 points

NASDAQ:           7500 RESISTANCE
GOLD:                 R1 1340 R2 1365 R3 1388 R4 1400

SILVER:              16.50 PIVOT 

OIL:                      58-65  

COPPER:             H2 2018-2019 à3.50-3.70+

US 10 year         IT à 3.00-3.20

BITCOIN:             10800 PIVOT  R1 10800 R2 12000 R3 14000 S1 9200 S2 8000 S3 5000 H2 2018 à 4500L

TIPS:                    TIP accumulation Q2 2018 à 1.11-

The Market Marker includes some cautious concern.

2017 CLOSE:          DJIA 24719 SPX  2673 & NASDAQ 6903

2016 CLOSE:          DJIA 19762 SPX  2238 & NASDAQ 5383

2015 CLOSE:          DJIA 17425 SPX  2044 & NASDAQ 5007

AFUND Fair Value: GOLD $1388
THINK TRADITIONAL SWISS AND PRESERVE CAPITAL: HEDGE AND PROTECT AGAINST DOWNSIDE RISK.

2. BUSINESS & BANQUETS

At our XXIV Triple Gold Conference at the Princeton Club we presented 4 early stage mining companies that we believe as a group will outperform their benchmarks:

Benz Mining, Para Resources, Piedmont Lithium & Rockhaven Resources

3.Gold Stocks Continue to Frustrate and Confuse Investors

Gold Price Forecast: Bollinger Bands signal breakout could happen soon

1.       Despite headwinds from US interest rate rising, happily, there will be less competition from MMJ & Bitcoin “investors” as time goes on. Therefore we repeat:

While there are some good reasons for future US$ strength, $1400 is an intermediate target for many precious metal analysts, and we agree.

However, we advise precious metal investors to pay attention to stock selection as a slowly rising tide does not float all boats equally.

·         Gold remains cheap geopolitical crisis insurance.

·         For investors who cannot or will not buy the $US currency as well as investors who wish to safely and cheaply hedge their US$ exposure, ONLY GOLD IS AS GOOD AS GOLD!

Gold FV $1388 = Commodity FV: 1334 + Currency FV: 1380 + Inflation Metal FV:1388 + Crisis FV: 1450.

Gold/Silver ratio à 69  FV $20.

INVESTORS: Intermediate Term, we plan to stay LONG in H1 2018 (recommending a precious metal sector hold rating and only occasional hedging, selling or profit taking).

We remain disinclined to short or sell until gold is overvalued e.g. $1400-1450. For silver our first selling numbers are $21+. 

4. "There was definitely a Yellen put, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a Powell put"

Kristina Hooper, global market strategist, Invesco

HW: Hopefully not.

"We believe that China remains attractively valued relative to its strong growth prospects, and parts of the market remain under-researched. We favor high growth domestic consumption-related names, while looking to avoid sectors with structural excess capacity." Jason Yu, head of multi-asset product for North Asia, Schroders

HW: We agree Q1-Q3 2018.

“Maybe we finally got a Fed Chair who thinks the economy is stronger than you think. Rate hikes are coming. Bet on it.”

Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist, MUFG

HW: You betcha!

5. Rising rates wreck REITs

Why markets have gotten so jumpy

Soarin Fundamentals For Stocks