Is the market too complacent? NFP, BoE, BoJ and an unsigned Iran deal define the week [Video]

Vrajeshwari Bhardwaj SharmaFX

This is the most important trading week of the month. NFP drops Friday. The Iran deal is still unsigned and the market has already priced it in. The BOE Governor speaks. The BOJ Governor speaks. And every currency, commodity, and index you trade is sitting at a critical inflection point.

We break down the full fundamental and market sentiment analysis for the week ahead — so you are never the liquidity for institutions.

Why this week is different?

The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high five consecutive sessions last week. The Nasdaq crossed 27,000. Goldman Sachs raised their year-end S&P target to 8,000. And simultaneously — Core PCE hit 3.8%, the hottest inflation reading in nearly three years. Consumer sentiment hit an all-time record low. Gold fell to a two-month low.

The market is climbing to record highs while the economy is under maximum inflation stress. Something has to give. This week's data will tell us which way.

Author

Vrajeshwari Bhardwaj

SharmaFX

Vrajeshwari Bhardwaj is the founder of SharmaFX, a global trading education and mentorship platform built on an institutional approach to forex, indices, commodities, and crypto markets.

GBP/USD hits multi-week tops around 1.3560

GBP/USD gathers fresh steam and advances to new three-month peaks near the 1.3560 zone on Friday. Cable’s sharp move higher comes after three daily drops in a row and follows the increasing selling pressure hurting the Greenback.

EUR/USD pops to fresh two-month highs, targets 1.1600

EUR/USD advances markedly, revisiting the upper 1.1500s for the first time since mid-June. The pair’s sharp uptick comes on the back of a strong retracement in the US Dollar amid BoJ intervention chatter and despite steady uncertainty in the Middle East.

Gold picks up pace, approaches $4,400

Gold rebounds toward the $4,400 mark per troy ounce on Friday, reversing the previous day’s pullback. The precious metal’s recovery comes as fresh and intense weakness keep weighing on the US Dollar, while traders keep assessing easing expectations of an imminent Fed interest rate hike and the situation from the Middle East.

Pi Network Price Forecast: PI extends consolidation as bulls eye $0.10

Pi Network (PI) price holds steady on Friday, maintaining a consolidating tone for three consecutive days. Mild retail strength in the PI token remains stable, with Open Interest above $9 million, while social buzz eases. PI token’s technical outlook is mixed, as bearish momentum wanes to neutral, with bulls eyeing the $0.1000 psychological level.

Weekly focus: Some relief in US inflation concerns

Actual inflation data for July came out as expected with a 0.1% m/m increase in headline CPI and 0.2% excluding food and energy. Annual headline inflation remains too high at 3.4% and means that wage earners are experiencing stagnating spending power at best, and core inflation is a bit higher than the inflation target of two percent would suggest.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.