Forecasting the upcoming week: Focus shifts to the FOMC Minutes

The US Dollar (USD) has managed to extend its weekly rally, revisiting an area last seen in April 2025. As usual in past weeks, hawkish comments from Fed officials have kept alive the likelihood of further tightening by the Fed in the upcoming months, while the utter absence of progress in negotiations to end the US-Iran-Hormuz crisis also appears to have bolstered the buck’s performance.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has clinched fresh multi-month tops past the key 102.00 barrier this week, extending the positive streak for the third week. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index is due on September 28. The final S&P Global Services PMI is due on October 5 alongside the ISM Services PMI. On October 6 comes the ADP Employment Change Weekly, followed by the Balance of Trade results, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and the API’s weekly report on US crude inventories. The usual MBA Mortgage Applications are due on October 7, seconded by the NY Fed’s Consumer Inflation Expectations and the FOMC Minutes. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims are expected on October 8 alongside Wholesale Inventories data. The preliminary U-Mich Consumer Sentiment will wrap up the docket on Ocotober 9.

EUR/USD traded with a negative bias for the fourth consecutive week, retreating to new 18-month lows near the 1.1200 contention level. The final S&P Global Services PMI in Germany and the Euroland are due on October 5, followed by Producer Prices in the broader bloc. The S&P Global Construction PMI in Germany and the Eurozone is due on October 6 alongside Factory Orders in Germany and Retail Sales in the euro region. On October 7 Germany will release its Industrial Production figures, while Balance of Trade results are expected on October 8 along with the ECB’s Accounts.

GBP/USD has briefly plummeted to the sub-1.3200 region, only to regain some traction afterwards, despite closing the week in the area of four-month lows. The final S&P Global Services PMI comes on October 5, while the S&P Global Construction PMI is due on October 6. The BBA Mortgage Rate is due on October 7 along with the Lloyds House Price Index. The RICS House Price Balance will be released on October 8.

USD/JPY closed its third consecutive week of gains, ending in the middle of the range near 157.50. The final S&P Global Services PMI comes on October 5 along with the Consumer Confidence measure. The Reuters Tankan Index is due on October 7, followed by Average Cash Earnings and the flash Coincident and Leading Economic indexes. On October 8 will come the Current Account results, the Eco Watchers Survey and the weekly Foreign Bound Investment data. Closing the calendar on October 9 will come Machine Tool Orders and Household Spending readings.

AUD/USD has plummeted to three-month lows, coming close to the key 0.6900 support level amid the multi-week decline. The final S&P Global Services PMI is due on October 5, while the Westpac Consumer Confidence gauge will be released on October 6. The final Building Permits data and Private House Approvals are due on October 7, seconded by the Ai Group Manufacturing Index. The Consumer Inflation Expectations tracked by the Melbourne Institute are due on October 8.

Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon

• The Fed’s Willaims and Bowman are due to speak on October 6.
• The Fed’s Logan and Williams will speak on October 7.
• The Fed’s Musalem speaks on October 8 alongside the BoE’s Bailey.
• The Fed’s Collins is expected to speak on October 9.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to shape monetary policies

• The RBI will decide on rates on October 7 (hike to 5.50%).
• The NBP meets on October 8 (unch).