After the surge, the WTI Crude Oil still faces some global risk sentiment strong enough to make it fly higher. Will it pop like a helium balloon?

Fundamental analysis

It appears that oil prices are being supported by speculators who have ignored signs of a slowing economy around the world. Nonetheless, the black gold may face a bearish supply forecast soon, which could potentially put it at risk of a pullback.

Furthermore, with a disappointing GDP in China in the third quarter and industrial production falling in September in the United States, the world's two largest economies have lost momentum, which could affect the level of energy demand.

Consequently, this context of state interventionism on energy prices is likely to reduce the transfer of demand from the coal market to petroleum products, depriving the crude of one of its wings that lifted it for a number of weeks.

U.S. API weekly crude oil stock


Inventory levels of US crude oil, gasoline, and distillates stocks, American Petroleum Institute (API) via Investing.

Regarding the API figures published Tuesday, the increase in crude inventories (with 3.294 million barrels versus 2.233 million barrels expected) implies weaker demand and is normally bearish for crude prices.

However, we have to see whether or not these figures will be confirmed by the weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) report.

If that scenario is confirmed by the EIA’s figures later today, then the black gold may be set for a corrective wave, possibly back to previous support levels.


WTI Crude Oil (CLZ21) Futures (December contract, daily chart)

In conclusion, anything can happen in this market in the forthcoming days… Therefore, no position in the WTI Crude is justified from the risk-reward perspective at the moment. However, things change quickly, and when they do, you don’t want to miss it! Subscribe to our premium Oil Trading Alerts to be the first to know about our trading outlooks, which are published as soon as opportunities arise.

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All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' employees and associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

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