Is a Breakdown Ahead for the NZDCAD?

Key Points:

• Corrective pattern evident on hourly timeframe.

• Long term bearish trend likely to dominate.

• Expect to see further declines in coming session.

The exotic NZDCAD has seen plenty of corrective breakdowns over the past month as the currency pair continued to trend lower.  However, the past 24 hours have seen the pair seemingly touch the bottom channel constraint and then subsequently rally back above the 0.9300 handle. Although this short term bullish move may have pleased those holding longs, the reality is that a corrective pattern is forming that is likely to see the pair trending sharply lower in the coming days.

In fact, a cursory look at the hourly charts demonstrates the historical significant of the current corrective pattern. Clearly the past few months have seen a pattern of short term rallies, within a short term channel, before price action breaks sharply lower before building into the next corrective phase. Subsequently, the hourly chart is again exhibiting a very similar build-up as we enter the latter stages of this week’s trading sessions.

Further supporting the bearish contention is the fact that the RSI Oscillator is nearing over-bought territory following the latest spike within the corrective channel. In addition, the stochastic oscillator is also signalling that it might be time for a pull back to relieve the building pressure on the oscillators. Subsequently, there are plenty of reasons to suggest that the pair will continue its historic pattern of short rallies and sharp pull backs.

Additionally, the New Zealand Dollar’s recent decline should be of little surprise to anyone from a fundamental perspective. The RBNZ is highly likely to continue loosening their monetary policy in the coming months and this is currently being priced into the NZD exchange rate. In contrast, rising crude oil prices is likely to benefit Canada’s current account balance and strengthen their economy. Subsequently, external pressures on the NZ economy are likely to remain ever-present for the remainder of the year.

Ultimately, the next 24 hours are likely to be relatively critical for the pair given its current vulnerability to the downside and the fact that the Oscillators are largely nearing overbought territory. Subsequently, keep a close watch on the 0.9340 level as this could be a key in signalling a concerted break down in progress. However, into next week keep a watch on the New Zealand CPI figures, due Monday, as they are likely to impact the pair’s direction from a fundamental perspective.