Iran/Oil prices in focus ahead of Tuesday's Israeli elections

Asia market update: Major tech headlines continue to appear ahead of key earnings [Hynix to report after Tues NY close]; META priced equity offering; HSBC results mixed; Iran/oil prices in focus ahead of Tues Israeli elections ;Wed seen as a key macro day for AUD/NZD traders [AU CPI, RBNZ decision].

General trends and developments

- Nasdaq FUTs opened +0.2% at 29,481 (vs. 29,437 at close), while S&P500 FUTs opened flat at 7,715 (vs. 7,714 at close) at the 18:00 pm EDT re-open.

-The US Treasury sold 2-yr debt ahead of Wed’s FOMC rate decision. The 2-year Treasury note auction recorded an average yield at 4.708% (vs. 4.787% prior) at today’s U.S. market’s note auction. Fed funds futures are currently pricing in a 10.5% probability of a +25bps rate hike to 4.00–4.25% at October 28th Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision, down from 18.8% a week ago and down from 64.2% a month ago.

-Iran + Israel Election Caution: WTI crude oil futures opened -0.4% lower at $101.36/bbl (vs. 101.76/bbl at close), while Brent crude futures also fell -0.4% to $110.27/bbl (vs. $110.74/bbl at close). This comes amid Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have agreed to strengthen regional cooperation and continue talks on security, regional unity, and shared concerns over Israel’s expansionist policies and the ongoing conflict between US and Iran. Meanwhile, Israel’s general election is scheduled tomorrow on October 27th, with Polymarket traders pricing in Gadi Eizenkot at a 53.8% probability of becoming the next PM, ahead of incumbent PM Benjamin Netanyahu at 28%. (**Reminder: Previously, Axios reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had asked U.S. President Donald Trump to provide more public support for his campaign, according to sources familiar with the matter.).

Former BOJ Gov Kuroda commented in the press pre ‘penultimate’ Oct BOJ decision on Fri: The penultimate BoJ interest rate decision of 2026 is scheduled for Thursday October 29th, with the Japan OIS currently pricing in a 1.5% probability of a +25bp hike at the October interest rate decision and a 77.5% probability of an interest rate hike by December (vs. 2% and 71% on Friday respectively). Ex-BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda supports further interest rate hikes, while his former deputy urges caution.

-Japan FX trading platform deals with cyber attack: GMO Internet (9449.JP parent company & 4784.JP subsidiary) faces further scrutiny as hackers threaten to release stolen data and launch a ransomware attack on October 27th, while Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama states 5 FX companies reported customer loss likely linked to GMO.

-NZIER Shadow Board split ahead of RBNZ decision: New Zealand’s RBNZ interest rate decision is scheduled for Tuesday October 27th EDT [NY time], following the “Labor Day” national holiday on Monday, with the majority of the NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board recommending a +25bps increase in the OCR. This reflects their view that renewed pressure on global energy prices and a recent weakening of the NZD increase the upside risks to inflation, warranting another OCR hike. Polymarket traders are pricing in a 97% probability of a +25bps OCR interest rate hike.

-Australian bond auction demand was soft ahead of Q3 CPI data amid lingering high inflation expectations: The next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision is scheduled for Tuesday, 3rd November 2026, with the announcement due at 2:30 pm AEDT. Australia’s October 2037 bond auction recorded an average yield fall of 5.2051% (vs. 5.296% prior), while the bid-to-cover ratio declined from 4.16x to 3.12x, as ANZ–Roy Morgan’s weekly consumer confidence increased to 67.9 (vs. 67.7 prior), despite the survey by ANZ Bank and Roy Morgan inflation expectations remain above 6% [highlighting persistent inflation concerns]. As of the 26th of October, the ASX 30 day interbank cash rate futures November 2026 contract traded at 95.26, indicating a 62% expectation of an +25bps interest rate hike to 4.85% at the next RBA interest rate decision. The shift toward rate hike expectations was driven by the recent comments from RBA Dep Gov Hauser. (**Reminder 10/20/2026: RBA Deputy Gov Hauser: Inflation outlook looks worse than forecasted in August, a bit above expectations; Inflation has been high for a very long time; Still finalizing forecasts, don't know for sure what board will decide - Fireside chat by Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor at Citi’s Australia & New Zealand Investment Conference, Sydney).

- Anthropic’s [ANT] S-1 filing has finally arrived: Anthropic has filed its S-1 registration statement with the SEC for a proposed Nasdaq IPO under the ticker “ANT“, targeting the week of November 16th. The company reported H1 revenues of $16.3B (vs. $1.2B y/y), but a net of -$80.7B, alongside substantial long-term AI infrastructure spending commitments aggregating to ~$245B with SpaceX arrangements through to 2029 (up to $120.5B), Google commitments through to 2033 (up to ~$114.5B), Amazon commitments through to 2036 (>$110B), and an Nscale services agreement (up to $44.6B). The lead bookrunners for Anthropic’s proposed IPO are Goldman Sachs holding the lead-left position and Morgan Stanley named second and serving as the stabilization agent, according to the S-1 filing.

- Multiple tech -related bond and equity deals priced after the Anthropic S-1 cloud was removed, most notably META: Meta earlier filed to sell planned $35B equity and preferred offerings, alongside a proposed $60B Class C ATM program expected to begin in Q1 2027. NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom have indicated non-binding interest in purchasing up to $5B in Meta Class A shares, with the offering including 250M depositary shares [representing a 1/20th interest in a preferred share] and a potential 37.5M additional shares through a 30-day underwriters’ option. Meta does not expect to initially receive proceeds from the Class A share offering, with settlement scheduled by November 19, 2027, while the timing, size, and terms of the proposed $60B program remain undetermined. Meta priced Class A common stock at $625/share (upsized from $22.5B) and depositary shares at $50/share.

- US equity FUTs -0.2% to +0.1% during Asia trading.

Looking ahead (Asian-weighted focus, using EST/EDT time-zone)

- Mon Oct 26th: FR BTF Auctions, KR Oct Consumer Confidence, (Mon night, KR Preliminary Q3 GDP, CN Sept YTD Industrial Profit, JP BoJ Core CPI).

- Tue Oct 27th: EU Sept M3 Money Supply, MX Sept Trade Balance, US Sept Preliminary Durable Goods Order & Core Durable Goods Order, US Oct CB Consumer Confidence, (Tue night, AU Q3 CPI, NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision + Statement + Press Conference, TH BOT Interest Rate Decision, HK Sept Trade Balance).

- Wed Oct 28th: HK Sept Trade Balance, IN Sept Industrial Production, DE 10-Year Bund Auction, CA BoC Interest Rate Decision + Statement + Press-Conference, RU Sept GDP + Industrial Production, US FOMC Interest Rate Decision + Statement + Press Conference, (Wed night, NZ Oct ANZ Business Confidence, JP Oct Household Confidence).

- Thu Oct 29th: US Q3 Preliminary PCE & Core PCE + Sept PCE & Core PCE, US Q3 Preliminary GDP, US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, EU ECB Interest Rate Decision + Statement + Press Conference, US Q4 Preliminary Atlanta Fed GDPNow, UR NBU Interest Rate Decision, (Thu night, KR Sept Industrial Production & Retail Sales, JP Oct Tokyo CPI & Core CPI, JP Sept Industrial Production & Retail Sales + Unemployment Rate, AU Q3 PPI, JP BoJ Interest Rate Decision + Statement + Press Conference, TH Sept Industrial Production + Trade Balance, TW Q3 Preliminary GDP, HK Sept M3 Money Supply).

- Fri Oct 30th: FR Q3 Preliminary GDP + Oct Preliminary CPI, ES Q3 Preliminary GDP + Oct Preliminary CPI, IT Q3 Preliminary GDP + Oct Preliminary CPI, DE Q3 Preliminary GDP + Oct Preliminary CPI, EU Q3 Preliminary GDP, MX Q3 Preliminary GDP, CA Aug GDP, US Oct Chicago PMI, RU Sept GDP, (Fri night, CN Oct Mnfg/Non-Mnfg/Composite PMI).

- Sat Oct 31st: (Sat night, KR Oct Preliminary Trade Balance).

Holidays in Asia this week

- Mon Oct 26th: New Zealand, Taiwan.

Headlines/economic data

Australia/New Zealand

-(AU) ASX 200 Index opens -0.1% at 8,803.

-(NZ) New Zealand NZIER Shadow Board recommends RBNZ raise cash rate to 3.00%.

-(AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence: 67.9 v 67.7 prior.

-(AU) Australia plans to expand tax incentives for venture capital by offering capital gains tax discounts for some startups.

-(AU) Australia sells A$1.0B v A$1.0B indicated in 4.75% Oct 2037 Bonds: Avg Yield: 5.2051% v 5.296% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.12x v 4.16x prior.

-(NZ) New Zealand RBNZ: Bought net NZ$515M in September vs. Bought net -NZ$253M in August.

China/Hong Kong

-(CN) Shanghai Composite Index opens flat at 3,698; (HK) Hang Seng Index opens +0.2% at 23,260.

-(CN) China 5-year government bond yield drops to record low-(CN) China Sept Industrial Profits Y/Y: 14.4% v 4.2% prior (strongest growth in three months).

-(CN) China sells total CNY in 3-month and 6-month bills.

-(CN) China PBOC sets the yuan mid-point at 6.7171 v 6.7162 prior.

-(CN) China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Sells CNY1.41T in 1-day Overnight Reverse Repo & 7-day Reverse Repos; Net injects CNY1.01T v injects CNY116B prior.

-(HK) 5.HK Reports Q3 Attributable Net $7.1B v $4.87B y/y, Adj Pretax $10.0B (cc and ex notable items) v $9.7Be, NII $9.3B v $8.88B y/y, Rev (cc and ex notable items) $18.7B v $18.9Be; announces up to $1.0B stock buyback; remains confident in achieving the targets we set out in February 2026.

Japan

-(JP) Nikkei 225 Index opens +0.6% at 62,569.

-(JP) Japan Ex-BoJ Chief Kuroda backs more rate hikes, his former Deputy urges caution.

-(JP) Japan GPIF Investment Chief Yoshizawa: Investing outside TOPIX important; cites comments made at an event in Tokyo hosted by the Japanese Bankers Association - US financial press.

-(JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Kihara: Confirms consular meeting held with detained reported on Monday - Tokyo, Japan.

-(JP) Japan Executive Director Nakajima: Have taken various security measures on BoJ-Net.

-(JP) Hackers claim to publish information on one GMO customer - NHK.

-(JP) Japan Trade Min Akazawa: Give small firms free consultation on cyber security - Tokyo, Japan.

-(JP) Japan sells ¥250B vs ¥250B indicated in Liquidity Enhancement Auction [remaining maturities of 11-39 years].

-(JP) 8697.JP Reports H1 Net ¥57.21B v ¥34.55B y/y, Op ¥84.67B v ¥51.28B y/y, Rev ¥131.00B v ¥89.32B y/y; To conduct 2-for-1 stock split effective April 1st.

-(JP) SFTBY Spokesperson: SoftBank Group exploring AI, digital infrastructure business opportunities in Malaysia. SoftBank working closely with Malaysia government, relevant parties.

Korea

-(KR) Kospi Index opens +3.5% at 5,659.

-(KR) South Korea Q3 advance GDP Q/Q: 1.0% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.1%E.

-(KR) Bank of Korea Official (BOK): Q3 GDP raises this year's economic growth projection by +0.35%. Chip production volume seen higher next year on HBM production effects, prices to continue rising but at slower rates.

-(KR) South Korea Oct Consumer Confidence: 105.4 v 106.6 prior.

-(KR) South Korea Budget Minister Park: Future fund may focus on short-, medium-term investments - Interview with US financial press.

-(KR) Korea Exchange activates sidecar on Kospi following Kospi 200 FUTs rising by +5%, programme trading halted for five-minutes.

-(KR) South Korea considers education tax on crypto exchanges under the planned digital-asset legislation - Seoul Economic Daily.

-(KR) South Korea sells KRW700B vs. KRW700B indicated in 4.5% 20-Year Bonds; Avg Yield: 4.155%.

Other Asia

-(TW) Taiwan Central Bank (CBC): Sees strong economic growth this year, stable growth next year. Sees Taiwan GDP at +5.82% next year. Central bank’s current monetary policy stance is tightening.

-(ID) Indonesia, Singapore foreign ministers to meet in Jakarta on Tuesday.

-(SG) Singapore, French regulators sign MOU on energy cooperation - US financial press.

-(SG) Singapore to accelerate solar deployment at government-owned premises - US financial press.

-(SG) Singapore launches Marvel-AI with S$150M investment.

-(IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays); to sell INR330B in 2029, 2033 and 2056 bonds (4 tranches) on Fri, Oct 30th.

-(TH) Thailand Central Bank sells THB60B vs. THB60B indicated in 3-month bills; Avg Yield: 0.73014% v 0.865% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.51x.

North America

-(US) US and Canada said to be working on deal to ease US 232 tariffs on Canadian steel and auto imports; Deal could come before the November 3 midterms - press [US market close].

-(US) Sept Chicago Fed National Activity Index: 0.07 v -0.10e [US market close].

-(US) Oct dallas Fed Manufacturing activity: 13.4 V 8.8E [US market close].

-(US) Treasury $69b 2-year note auction draws 4.708% v 4.787% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.59x v 2.63x prior and 2.59 over the last 12 auctions [US market close].

-(US) President Trump to ease oil well methane curbs in bid to lower costs - US financial press.

-(US) FHFA Dir Pulte: promises more action on mortgage costs; "We are taking more action this week to ensure competition is real and not fake, or manipulated...Abusive monopolies will not be allowed to take advantage of consumers anywhere in the mortgage market. [US market close].

-(US) President Trump: Will appeal decision on DC golf course - Reporters.

-(US) President Trump to rally in Salina, Kansas Saturday - CNN Reporter [post on X].

-(US) ANT Releases S-1 filing: Reports H1 Net -$80.7B, Rev $16.3B v $1.2B y/y (as previously reported); To list on Nasdaq under 'ANT', targets Nov 16th week; Notes losses will continue, sees capex increasing significantly; Raised $141.1B of capital as of Jun 30th [US market close].

-(US) SPCX Confirms binding commitment for GPU finance lease with Apollo-managed entity; ~$40B aggregate principal payments [US market close].

-(US) SPCX Musk: Expect Starlink mobile network build out will take 2-3 years - X post [in response to Verizon comments] [US market close].

-(US) META Files to sell $35B in concurrent stock and mandatory convertible preferred offerings; Plans a separate $60B Class C common stock ATM program; NVDA, AMD, and AVGO indicated interest in purchasing $5B in Class A stock [US market close].

-(US) META Follow up: Files to sell 250M Series A depositary shares at $50/shr; 30-day option for 37.5M additional shares [US market close].

-(US) MSFT Reportedly to offer buyouts to ~60K workers in latest cost cutting measures (offer made to about 27% of global workforce) - Business Insider [US market close]

-(US) AVGO $63B financing transaction to fund AI compute capacity for Anthropic; Deliveries expected to start in 2027.

-(US) CART Doordash said to be in advanced talks to acquire Instacart for ~$17.0B; Deal could be finalized later this week - WSJ [US market close].

-(US) VZ Reports Q3 $1.31 adj v $1.27e, Rev $34.3B v $34.8Be; Expands strategic partnership with AWS in $2B+ AI infrastructure deal [US market close].

-(BR) Brazil Oct FGV Consumer Confidence: 84.7 v 84.2 prior [US market close].

-(BR) Trump: The Brazil election looked "terrible" to me, looked like another rigged election to me [US market close].

-(CA) Canada PM Carney: We are not willing to sign the trade terms with the US that were offered in August; Have seen a slight intensification of US trade talks [US market close].

Europe

-(RU) Follow up: Russian Defense Ministry: Russia suspends strikes on Ukraine's Kherson as ceasefire begins in Oleshky.

-(UR) Ukraine Kyiv Mayor: Southern bridge, subway damaged in attack.

-IEA Chief Birol: Role of geopolitics will be much more pronounced, underscoring the importance of energy security.

-(DE) German Chancellor Merz: [CPTPP Collaboration] EU, with 450M consumers, has strategic interests in having open access to markets.

-(UK) Oct CBI Retailing Reported Sales: -10 v -55 prior [EU market close].

-(UK) Oct BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.6%e (highest since February 2024).

-(UK) UK Chancellor Healey expected to announce National Living Wage for citizens 21 and over will rise 3.9% from £12.71 to £13.20/hr - UK Times [EU market close].

-(ES) Spain said to ease data center regulation; cites new draft proposal; the initial proposal applied to facilities with >1Mw of power capacity, under the revised proposal the threshold has been increased to >10Mw - US financial press.

-(RO) Romania sells RON1.205B vs. RON1.0B indicated in 6.75% 2035 Bonds; Avg Yield: %; bid-to-cover: x2.

Middle East

-(IR) Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have agreed to continue talks - Iran press [EU market close].

-(IR) Senior Iran official: Talks with Mecca Pact members today will not cover Iran's nuclear issue; Iran will not discuss its nuclear program until the US meets Tehran's demands [EU market close].

-(SA) Saudi-led Coalition: Intercepted and destroyed four drones launched by Yemen's Houthis towards Southern Region.

-(IL) Israeli Military: Egyptian civilian detained after crossing border fence from Egyptian territory into Israel near Nitzana.

Levels as of 01:20am EDT

Nikkei 225 +1.6%; ASX 200 +0.5%; Hang Seng -0.8%; Shanghai Composite -0.5%; Kospi +3.3%.

Equity S&P500 Futures +0.1%; Nasdaq100 -0.2%; DAX -0.2%; FTSE100 -0.1%.

EUR 1.1179-1.1163; JPY 157.76-157.42; AUD 0.7034-0.7010; NZD 0.5705-0.5675.

Gold -0.3% at $4,007/oz; BTC -0.6% at $79,800; WTI Crude Oil -1.1% at $100.67/bbl; Copper +0.3% at $6.5593/lbs.