Investors climb the wall of worry

Arnaud Masset Swissquote Bank Ltd

Markets are watching geopolitics closely, especially the China/US trade conflict. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve Bank has entered “wait-and-see” mode on monetary policy and will maintain as long as economic indicators stall. US headline inflation in January eased to 1.6% annually - compared to 1.9% in the previous month a forecast of 1.7% - amid a collapse in oil prices. Core inflation came in above forecast, printing at 2.2% compared to 2.1% expected. More data is coming this afternoon: publication of January’s producer prices, initial jobless claims, December’s retail sales and business inventories. On Friday come industrial production, Michigan sentiment index, Empire Manufacturing and most importantly durable goods orders for the month of December as well as purchasing manager indicators.

The US dollar bounced back at the European opening, especially against the Australian and New Zealand dollar. Over the last days, the greenback has traded with an upward bias, remaining insensitive to economic data. Trade negotiations between the US and China are still the main driver in FX.

Stay on top of the markets with Swissquote’s News & Analysis

Author

Arnaud Masset

Swissquote Bank Ltd

Arnaud Masset is a Market Analyst at Swissquote Bank. He has a strong technical background and also works in the development of quantitative trading strategies.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.