Inflation is a no-show

What was the fuss about tariffs again?

Tariffs on imported U.S. goods will surely cause a spike of inflation. That was, and to some extent still persists as, the primary narrative used to finger wag the White House. Meanwhile, staffers gave a few media outlets the rejoinder that we are now four-and-a-half months removed from the first tariff announcements, and inflation is a no show.

Perhaps that is why even additional tariff news couldn’t keep buyers from showing up once the S&P 500 index (and the ETFs like SPY that track it), dropped into the defacto buy zone (see chart).

The question is whether this is the beginning of a weakening resolve in the minds of buyers. Such a loss of confidence from investors could turn the trend of prices lower, but as of now, technical indicators aren’t showing that. Note that the rate of change (ROC) indicator shown in the lower pane of the previous chart, had a bearish divergence building in July, but now shows a bullish confirmation signal (the last two peaks rising congruent with price action).

If investors need to be worried about rising inflation that will result from tariffs, the pundits need to find another way to tell them to become fretful, because the message is simply not getting through. Alternatively, the message could be wrong.

LOW returning to a high

If inflation rises, interest rates won’t be cut by the Fed, and mortgage rates will remain high, keeping potential home buyers away from the market. It follows that home prices will soften under such circumstances. If those circumstances were expected to play out, you can bet that big box home improvement retailers would likely have trouble.

Again, investors are ignoring the popularized narrative and buying up the big box retailers. Yesterday I mentioned Home Depot (HD), but today we see evidence from Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW). This company reported its quarterly earnings Wednesday morning and, even on mildly good news showing that they met forecasts and plan to acquire a supplier, investors bid the stock up to $265 per share, near its all-time high.

This is not the behavior of a nervous, skeptical market waiting to sell off. It may be this year’s version of irrational exuberance. On the other hand, it could also be the wisdom of crowds determining that the economy has better prospects ahead of it than behind.

Sectors still show bullish performance

Perhaps it would be too much of a stretch to extrapolate a bullish sentiment just from one stock in the consumer discretionary sector. However, it isn’t just one stock. It is the entire sector. Along with the industrial sector and the technology sector, the consumer discretionary sector has led the broad market higher ever since the tariff tantrums in early April (see chart).

The thick blue line in this chart is the S&P 500, the three colored lines above it represent the aforementioned bullish sectors. The other 8 sectors have lagged the average, but they haven’t run into negative territory over the past few months. While technical analysts could have a debate about the lack of breadth in the current rally, none would feel comfortable ignoring the bullish undertone of the current sector alignment.

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