CEE: Industrial performance varies compared to last year

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

In May, average real wage in industry in Slovakia declined by -0.4% y/y, while industrial sales were up by 3.6% y/y.
Current account deficit in May was at CZK 5.83 billion in Czechia and PLN -1.74 billion in Poland. In Romania, year-to-date current account deficit reached EUR 12.63 billion.
Current account deficit in Poland was at EUR -1.74 billion in May.
Industrial output in Romania in May arrived at 3.7% y/y.
Inflation in June will be published in Slovakia (9 AM CET), in Poland (10 AM CET) and in Croatia (11 AM CET).

Economic developments

Performance of the industry between January and May has been better compared to 2024 in Czechia and Croatia. In Poland, Romania and Serbia, growth dynamics of industrial output five months into 2025 is similar to one observed last year. In Romania, industrial output recovered in May growing by 3.7% y/y as opposed to -2.1% y/y decline in April. In other countries, namely, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia, industrial output growth has so far been weaker compared to 2024. The most pronounced decline of the industry took place in Hungary, where each month since the beginning of the year industry contracted. The most recent news that the Chinese CATL plans to postpone the construction of the second phase of the Debrecen plant is not favorable for the outlook of the industry in Hungary. That comes at the top of uncertainty around tariffs that is a growth negative factor in other countries as well. The Czech Ministry of Finance for example estimates that 30% tariffs on imports (to be imposed if no deal is reached between the EU and the US by August 1) would slow the Czech economic growth by 0.4 percentage points this year and by 1.1 percentage point in 2026.

Market developments

Romania’s government survived a no-confidence motion on Monday, clearing the way for a sweeping austerity plan. The consolidation path assumes higher taxes and lower spending and is set to go into force from August 1. On Monday, the FX market was relatively stable although the uncertainty around tariffs is negative for the local currencies. On the bond market the changes on the longterm yields have been rather marginal as well at the beginning of the week. There are no other market related news.

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Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

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