India: Job creation is concentrated in low-productivity sectors, which is hindering growth

BNP Paribas Team BNP Paribas

Between 2013 and 2018, India experienced robust productivity growth (increasing by a factor of 1.3, comparable to Vietnam, slightly lower than China, and higher than Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand). However, from 2019 onwards, productivity in India has stagnated, while it has continued to rise in other countries (with the exception of the Philippines). This trend is particularly concerning given that GDP per capita remains low (in PPP, it was 2.4 times lower than that of China in 2024) and unemployment is high, especially among young people (15.6% in 2024 according to official data). Without a rapid increase in productivity, India could remain a ‘middle-income’ country.

Productivity growth per worker

According to the Penn World Table, productivity per worker in India experienced a sharp growth during the period from 2013 to 2018 (averaging +5.5% annually). However, this growth slowed significantly to just 0.4% per year from 2019 to 2023 (after accounting for the impact of the pandemic). Robust job creation in recent years (+5.6% per year on average compared to 0.4% from 2013 to 2018) has not led to a significant increase in productivity.

During the fiscal years 2013 to 2018, 74% of labour productivity growth was due to an increase in intra-sectoral productivity, which was driven by improvements in labour quality, technology and/or better production organisation. Conversely, from FY2019-2023, this increase came to a halt and shifts in labour between sectors led to a decline (in level) in intra-sectoral productivity. Not only did labour move to less productive sectors, but this move also led to a (slight) decrease in productivity in those sectors.

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BNP Paribas Team

BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.

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