How to trap the bears
S&P 500 rallied on the mixed NFPs data through 6,115 resistance, but then hot UoM consumer inflation expectations came, pushing ES below 6,090 – and when this level could have been still reclaimed, the reciprocal tariffs headline hit, sending S&P 500 to the 6,040s in a couple of minutes.
What‘s worrying, is that we got another down Friday, and sentiment sour mixed with uncertain rules into the weekend (I‘m though not looking for any great bearish gap to start Sunday‘s Globex). Zooming out, the picture isn‘t catastrophic – it‘s a fine weekly flag, I have covered this and many more aspects in your usual extensive weekend video, starting with this week‘s earnings analysis, S&P 500 multiple time frames view, precious metals and oil analysis amid macro drivers for equities, yields and the dollar explained.
Fear not yet the rising yen, it hadn‘t caused any issues to risk appetite – inflation expectations ascent is what did it. Treasury markets are also adjusting to the prospect of no rate cut all the way through Jun 2025, currently at almost 48% odds. Then, it‘s USD path that will drive DIA, XLI.
EUR/USD will be an important indicator of risk taking returning, together with yields path, and 10y is back at 4.50% - gold and silver moves have been called for clients regardless, just as much as sell the rip one of Monday for oil.
Author
Monica Kingsley
Monicakingsley
Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.
