How to trap the bears

Monica Kingsley Monicakingsley

S&P 500 rallied on the mixed NFPs data through 6,115 resistance, but then hot UoM consumer inflation expectations came, pushing ES below 6,090 – and when this level could have been still reclaimed, the reciprocal tariffs headline hit, sending S&P 500 to the 6,040s in a couple of minutes.

What‘s worrying, is that we got another down Friday, and sentiment sour mixed with uncertain rules into the weekend (I‘m though not looking for any great bearish gap to start Sunday‘s Globex). Zooming out, the picture isn‘t catastrophic – it‘s a fine weekly flag, I have covered this and many more aspects in your usual extensive weekend video, starting with this week‘s earnings analysis, S&P 500 multiple time frames view, precious metals and oil analysis amid macro drivers for equities, yields and the dollar explained.

Fear not yet the rising yen, it hadn‘t caused any issues to risk appetite – inflation expectations ascent is what did it. Treasury markets are also adjusting to the prospect of no rate cut all the way through Jun 2025, currently at almost 48% odds. Then, it‘s USD path that will drive DIA, XLI.

EUR/USD will be an important indicator of risk taking returning, together with yields path, and 10y is back at 4.50% - gold and silver moves have been called for clients regardless, just as much as sell the rip one of Monday for oil.

Author

Monica Kingsley

Monicakingsley

Monica Kingsley is a trader and financial analyst serving countless investors and traders since Feb 2020.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.