Monica Kingsley
Monicakingsley
S&P 500 rallied on the mixed NFPs data through 6,115 resistance, but then hot UoM consumer inflation expectations came, pushing ES below 6,090 – and when this level could have been still reclaimed, the reciprocal tariffs headline hit, sending S&P 500 to the 6,040s in a couple of minutes.
What‘s worrying, is that we got another down Friday, and sentiment sour mixed with uncertain rules into the weekend (I‘m though not looking for any great bearish gap to start Sunday‘s Globex). Zooming out, the picture isn‘t catastrophic – it‘s a fine weekly flag, I have covered this and many more aspects in your usual extensive weekend video, starting with this week‘s earnings analysis, S&P 500 multiple time frames view, precious metals and oil analysis amid macro drivers for equities, yields and the dollar explained.
Fear not yet the rising yen, it hadn‘t caused any issues to risk appetite – inflation expectations ascent is what did it. Treasury markets are also adjusting to the prospect of no rate cut all the way through Jun 2025, currently at almost 48% odds. Then, it‘s USD path that will drive DIA, XLI.
EUR/USD will be an important indicator of risk taking returning, together with yields path, and 10y is back at 4.50% - gold and silver moves have been called for clients regardless, just as much as sell the rip one of Monday for oil.
All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD struggles to reclaim 1.0800 after German sentiment data
EUR/USD fluctuates in a tight channel slightly below 1.0800 in the European session on Tuesday. The data from Germany showed that the IFO - Business Climate improved less than expected in March. In the second half of the day, consumer sentiment data from the US will be watched closely.
GBP/USD trades with caution above 1.2900, with eyes on tariffs, geopolitics
GBP/USD treads water above 1.2900 in Tuesday’s European session. The pair struggles amid a downbeat market mood as trades turn cautious amid a lack of clarity on US tariffs, anticipating the outcome of the US-Rusisa talks on Ukraine peace deal. US data and Fedspeak are also in focus.
Gold price trades with modest gains above $3,000; positive risk tone could cap gains
Gold price edges higher and snaps a three-day losing streak amid a softer USD. Bets that the Fed will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon also support the bullion. Traders now look to Tuesday’s US macro data and Fed speak for a fresh impetus.
Cronos rallies 17% ahead of its zkEVM v26 Mainnet upgrade
Cronos, the token for the Crypto.com platform, extends its gain by 17% and trades around $0.11 on Monday after surging nearly 18% the previous day.
Seven Fundamentals for the Week: Tariff news, fresh surveys, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge are eyed Premium
Reports and rumors ahead of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement next week will continue moving markets. Business and consumer surveys will try to gauge where the US economy is heading. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is eyed late in the week.
The Best brokers to trade EUR/USD
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.