- The US Retail Sales Report and especially the Control Group is a top-tier figure and that impact the USD/JPY.
- The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
- The USDJPY moved, on average, 30 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 50 pips in the following 4 hours.
Buying USD/JPY Scenario
- Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.86 deviation (0.65%) [BUY Pair]
- Key Resistance Level: 110.50
This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.86 or higher (0.65% or higher in actual terms), the pair may go up reaching a range of 41 pips in the first 15 minutes and 62 pips in the following 4 hours.
110.00 is a round number and remains a battleground. 110.50 capped the pair early in the year and also earlier in the week. 110.88 was the high point on June 13th. 111.40 was the peak on May 21st.
Selling USD/JPY Scenario
- Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.02 deviation (0.1%) [SELL Pair]
- Fundamental Support Level: 109.50
If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.02 or less ( 0.1% or lower in actual terms), the USDJPY may go down reaching a range of 59 pips in the first 15 minutes and 93 pips in the following 4 hours.
109.50 was a stubborn cap in late April. 109.20 was a swing low on June 8th. 108.65 was a swing low on May 4th and 108.10 served as support on May 29th.
USD/JPY Levels on the Chart
The US economy is centered around consumption, making the fresh retail sales report for May an important figure to watch. It is also a key component in GDP calculations. The Retail Control Group is the core of the core and is eyed by the Fed. Given the limited reaction to the rate decision, volatility could rise with the publication.
In the last five releases, the USDJPY moved, on average, 30 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 50 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a positive surprise of 0.00 in terms of relative deviation and the USDJPY reached a 31 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 63 pips 4 hours thereafter.
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.