How to trade the US Retail Sales with EUR/USD

Tradeable figure: Retail Sales control group (United States)

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.0369 deviation (0.1989) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.1508

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.0369 or less (0.1989 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 40 pips in the first 15 minutes and 73 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1430 was a swing high on August 14th. 1.1508 is a critical level after serving as the 2018 low for a long time. 1.1530 was a support line in early August.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.75 deviation (0.5454%) [SELL Pair]

• Key Support Level: 1.1300

 This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.75 or higher (0.5454 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 38  pips in the first 15 minutes and 79 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1365 was the low point on August 13th. 1.1300 is a round number and a range separator from July 2017. Further down, 1.1220 was a support line last year.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

US Retail Sales are seen posting another month of solid growth in July. Consumer spending strong despite mounting uncertainty and rising inflationary pressures.  

See: US Retail Sales preview: another solid reading to keep the greenback running

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 30 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 50 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -2.06281 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 6 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 27 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.