How to trade the US Retail Sales Control Group with EUR/USD

  • US Retail Sales and especially the Control Group gauge shake the US Dollar.
  • The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
  • The EURUSD moved, on average, 30 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 52 pips in the following 4 hours

Tradeable figure: Retail Sales control group (United States)

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.03 deviation (0.19 ) [BUY Pair]

  • Key Resistance Level: 1.1735

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.03 or less(0.19 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 40 pips in the first 15 minutes and 73 pips in the following 4 hours.

The August high of 1.1735 is an important level to watch. The quadruple top of 1.1750 capped the pair in July and awaits close by. Next, 1.1850 was the peak the EUR/USD reached on June 14th, before Draghi sent it tumbling down

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

  • Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.71 deviation (0.53%) [SELL Pair]

  • Key Support Level: 1.1660

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.71 or higher(0.53 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 36  pips in the first 15 minutes and 78 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1660 was the peak last week. It is followed by the round number of 1.1600. The trough of the week at 1.1565 provides further support and the last level is 1.1530, a triple bottom.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

EURUSD technical analysis Draghi pushes it higher

More data

After robust sales in July, expectations for August are lower. Nevertheless, sales are expected to continue rising once again. 

More: US Retail Sales preview: falling consumer confidence hints a poor outcome

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 30 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 52 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a positive surprise of 0.51 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 9 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 41 pips 4 hours thereafter. 

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

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