How to trade the US Existing Home Sales with EUR/USD

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.82 deviation (5.36) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.1650

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.82 or less (5.36 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 29 pips in the first 15 minutes and 65 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1650 was a resistance line on June 18th. It is followed by 1.1730 which provided support to the pair before the pair collapsed, and 1.1850 that served as a high point on June 14th.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.79 deviation (5.66 ) [SELL Pair]

  Key Support Level: 1.1510

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.79 or higher (5.66 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 26  pips in the first 15 minutes and 68 pips in the following 4 hours.

Some support awaits at the June 15th lows of 1.1545 but stronger support awaits at 1.1510 which is 2018 low and the lowest point since July 2017. Further down, 1.1480 is notable for serving as an important line last summer.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 0 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 36 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.60 in terms of relative deviation and the EURUSD reached a 0 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 26 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.