How to trade the US Durable Goods Orders with EUR/USD

The Core Durable Goods Orders publication is closely watched by the Fed and has a significant impact on markets.
The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
The EUR/USD moved, on average, 19 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 61 pips in the following 4 hours

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.83 deviation (-0.93%) [BUY Pair]
Key Resistance Level: 1.1822

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.83 or less (-0.93% or lower in actual terms), the EUR/USD may go up reaching a range of 19 pips in the first 15 minutes and 67 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1767 was a temporary low point in mid-May. Further up, the trough of 1.1822 was visited in May and also in December. Even higher, 1.1915 was a low point in January.

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.43 deviation (0.73%) [SELL Pair]
Key Support Level: 1.1676

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of +1.43 or higher (0.73% or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 15 pips in the first 15 minutes and 57 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1717 was a trough in December 2017 and a swing low in late May. The 1.1676 was a low point on May 23rd. Further down, 1.1630 served in both direction in November 2017.

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation, or Core Orders, feed into GDP data. Markets will want to see if the economy picked up in the second quarter of the year. In addition, the figure is closely watched by the Fed.

In the last five releases, the EUR/USD moved, on average, 19 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 61 pips in the following 4 hours.

The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.99 in terms of relative deviation and the EUR/USD reached a 43 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 112 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

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