- The Core Durable Goods Orders publication is closely watched by the Fed and has a significant impact on markets.
- The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
- The EUR/USD moved, on average, 19 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 61 pips in the following 4 hours
Buying EUR/USD Scenario
-
Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.83 deviation (-0.93%) [BUY Pair]
-
Key Resistance Level: 1.1822
If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.83 or less (-0.93% or lower in actual terms), the EUR/USD may go up reaching a range of 19 pips in the first 15 minutes and 67 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.1767 was a temporary low point in mid-May. Further up, the trough of 1.1822 was visited in May and also in December. Even higher, 1.1915 was a low point in January.
Selling EUR/USD Scenario
-
Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.43 deviation (0.73%) [SELL Pair]
-
Key Support Level: 1.1676
This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of +1.43 or higher (0.73% or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 15 pips in the first 15 minutes and 57 pips in the following 4 hours.
1.1717 was a trough in December 2017 and a swing low in late May. The 1.1676 was a low point on May 23rd. Further down, 1.1630 served in both direction in November 2017.
EUR/USD Levels on the Chart
More data
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation, or Core Orders, feed into GDP data. Markets will want to see if the economy picked up in the second quarter of the year. In addition, the figure is closely watched by the Fed.
In the last five releases, the EUR/USD moved, on average, 19 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 61 pips in the following 4 hours.
The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.99 in terms of relative deviation and the EUR/USD reached a 43 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 112 pips 4 hours thereafter.
Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trades weak below 1.0800 amid Good Friday lull, ahead of US PCE
EUR/USD remains depressed below 1.0800 after soft French inflation data, amid minimal volatility and thin liquidity on Good Friday. The pair keenly awaits the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's speech for fresh hints on next week's price action.
GBP/USD holds steady above 1.2600 as markets stay calm on Good Friday
GBP/USD trades sideways above 1.2600 amid a typical Good Friday trading lull. A broadly firmer US Dollar could keep any upside attempts limited in the pair ahead of the US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Powell's appearance.
Gold price sits at all-time highs above $2,230, US PCE eyed
Gold price hit all-time highs at $2,236 on Thursday to finish Q1 2024 with a bang. Most major world markets, including the US are closed due to Holy Friday, leaving volatility around Gold price highly subdued. US PCE inflation and Powell are awaited.
Jito price could hit $6 as JTO coils up inside this bullish pattern
Jito (JTO) price has been on an uptrend since forming a local bottom in early January. Since then, JTO has revisited the key swing point formed in early December, suggesting the bulls’ intention to move higher.
Key events in developed markets next week
Next week, the main focus will be inflation and the labour market in the Eurozone. We expect services inflation to be impacted by the easter effect, while the unemployment rate to be unchanged.