How to trade the US ADP Non-Farm Payrolls with EUR/USD

Buying EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.66 deviation (169.39 ) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level: 1.1750

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -0.66 or less(169.39 or lower in actual terms), the EURUSD may go up reaching a range of 26 pips in the first 15 minutes and 74 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1750 is a double top and also was a high point in mid-July. 1.1795 is the peak during July. Higher above we find 1.1850, the peak that was seen in mid-June. 

Selling EUR/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +0.79 deviation (203.58 ) [SELL Pair]

  Key Support Level: 1.1575

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 0.79 or higher(203.58 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 25  pips in the first 15 minutes and 65 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.1665 separated ranges in late July. Lower, 1.1620 was a trough in late July. Lower, 1.1575 was a low point in the middle of the month. The 2018 low of 1.1508 is next. 

EUR/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

The private sector jobs report produced by ADP is well-correlated with the all-important Non-Farm Payrolls publication that comes out two days later. After a relatively disappointing number in June, expectations for July are lower. 

ADP NFP and ISM Manufacturing PMI preview: Defensive forecasts leave room for surprises

In the last five releases, the EURUSD moved, on average, 12 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 39 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.55745 regarding relative deviation, and the EURUSD reached a nine pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 30 pips 4 hours after that. 

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.