How to trade the UK retail sales with GBP/USD

The UK Retail Sales report provides vital information about the UK economy and moves the GBP/USD.
The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.

Yohay Elam FXStreet

Buying GBP/USD Scenario

Tradable Positive Trigger: +0,34 deviation [BUY Pair]
Key Resistance Level: $1.4280

If it comes out at higher than expected with a deviation of +0,34 or higher, the pair may go up reaching a range of 37 pips in the first 15 minutes and 82 pips in the following 4 hours.

The pair is capped by the mid-March highs of $1.4280. Next up we find the January 25th peak of $1.4345, and finally the post-Brexit high of $1.4376.

Selling GBP/USD Scenario

Tradable Negative Trigger: -0,45 deviation [SELL Pair]
Key Support Level: $1.4170.

If it comes out lower than expected at a deviation of -0,45 or less, the GBP/USD may down reaching a range of 30 pips in the first 15 minutes and 78 pips in the following 4 hours.

The April 18th low of $1.4170 is the immediate support line. Next down is $1.4150, a recent trough in April and the $1.4070 level is next.

GBP/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

In the last five releases, the GBP/USD moved, on average, 29 pips in the 15 minutes after the release and 83 pips in the 4 hours after the release.

The previous release had a surprise of +0.68 regarding deviation, and the GBP/USD reached a range of 27 pips in the first 15 minutes and 111 pips in the following 4 hours.

The British Pound has been on the back foot after both wages and inflation disappointed. Will retail sales be better?

See: UK retail sales Preview: UK shoppers appetite little promoted by Easter

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.

Author

Yohay Elam

FXStreet

Yohay is in Forex since 2008 when he founded Forex Crunch, a blog crafted in his free time that turned into a fully-fledged currency website later sold to Finixio.

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