How to trade the UK jobs report with GBP/USD

Tradable figure: UK Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (United Kingdom)

Buying GBP/USD Scenario

• Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.09 deviation (2.95%) [BUY Pair]

• Key Resistance Level:  1.3275

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 1.09 or higher(2.95 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go up reaching a range of 42  pips in the first 15 minutes and 84 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.3275 capped the pair on July 5th. 1.3305 was the swing high on July 10th. Even higher, 1.3365 was the swing high on July 9th.

Selling GBP/USD Scenario

• Tradable Negative Trigger: -1.33 deviation (2.83%) [SELL Pair]

• Fundamental Support Level: 1.3110

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.33 or less(2.83 or lower in actual terms), the GBPUSD may go down reaching a range of 48 pips in the first 15 minutes and 88 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.3110 provided support to the pair on July 9th. Further down, 1.3100 is a round number and the swing low on July 13th. 1.3050 was trough on June 28th.

GBP/USD Levels on the Chart

More data

Jobs are aplenty in the UK but wages are stuck, finding it hard to keep up to speed with inflation. The Bank of England is closely following salaries in order to decide about the next rate hikes. 

More: UK wages Preview: Solid wage growth and tight labor market keeps rate hike chances high

 In the last five releases, the GBPUSD moved, on average, 9 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 36 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -2.04 in terms of relative deviation and the GBPUSD reached a 5 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 25 pips 4 hours thereafter. 

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.