How this report can help your trading: Gold, USD/JPY, NOK/USD

Weekly thoughts

After a (well deserved?) break last week, we’re back with another weekly update.

In the northern hemisphere it’s the end of the summer. Many traders use this time of year for a bit of R&R by stopping or cutting back on their trading

BUT it’s September now - and it’s time to get serious with trading again.

As such, it seems like a useful juncture to outline again what my team and I hope to achieve with these weekly updates - and how you can use them to your advantage.

A weekly update is too infrequent to post intraday charts so we focus on daily charts and above to give you swing trading or position trading ideas - but also a framework for trading lower timeframes.

Our premise is quite simple. If the higher timeframes show a bias one way or the other, we only take lower timeframe trades that fit the bias.

Quite often that bias comes in the form of an existing long term trend (our example of that this week is gold) but the bias can also be informed by breakouts or even potential trend reversals (our example this time is USD/JPY).

The US dollar has been in a downtrend this year - you already know this.

But it's easy to forget.

There are always good opportunities to buy and sell any currency in the forex market, especially intraday on 15min, 1-hour or even 4-hour charts.

Our bias for most of this year has been to sell dollars against anything we can from major and exotic currencies to precious metals.

Of course, we can never know for sure if from one week to the next the dollar will rise or fall - but by using technical analysis, multi-timeframe analysis and risk management techniques - we aim to put the odds in our favour.

Because let’s face it—on any given day, the market will throw out dozens of signals. Some of them will look convincing, many will contradict each other, and plenty will lead nowhere. If you don’t have a guiding framework, it’s very easy to get caught in the noise.

By starting each week with the higher timeframes, we anchor ourselves in the broader trend. That anchor gives context to the smaller moves.

E.g.

• If gold has been trending higher on the daily chart, then a pullback on the 1-hour isn’t something to panic over, it’s potentially an opportunity.
• If USD/JPY is flashing signs of a reversal at a key weekly level, we know to tread carefully when tempted by short-term rallies.

What we also hope you’ll notice is that we’re not trying to “call the market.” Nobody can.

Instead, we’re mapping out probabilities. Technical analysis gives us structure; risk management gives us protection; and patience gives us staying power. Put those together, and you’re no longer reacting to every candle—you’re waiting for the trades that truly fit your plan.

Another point worth emphasising is that this isn’t just about the US dollar or gold or yen. The process is universal. Whether you’re trading majors, crosses, stocks, or even commodities, the same discipline applies: start with the higher timeframe, identify the bias, then drill down to the setups that align with it.

So as you follow along with these weekly notes, think of them less as predictions and more as a compass. They won’t always point you directly to a trade, but they’ll help you orient yourself in the market. And when you combine that with your own style—whether you prefer scalping the 15-minute chart or holding positions for weeks—you’ll be trading with the wind at your back rather than into it.

Setups and signals

We look at hundreds of charts each week and present you with three of our favourite setups and signals.

Gold

Setup

The price has closed outside the top of a triangle or bull pennant pattern, suggesting a trend continuation - matching the two prior examples of similar patterns.

Signal

The daily chart shows the price testing resistance at 3,450. Resistance could temporarily see price pullback but the weekly chart favours a bullish breakout. RSI has also never gotten oversold during this sideways correction since May, showing strong underlying momentum.

USD/JPY

Setup

The bigger picture is one of an incomplete Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. A breakdown below the neckline at 140 would indicate the long term trend has turned bearish. For now price is stuck beneath the broken long term uptrend line.

Signal

A rally to just shy of the 61.8% Fib level could have been the top of a retracement of the former decline from just under 160. There was also a false breakout over 150. A break below the rising trendline would confirm the retracement is over and setup a retest of 140.

NOK/USD

Setup

After bottoming around 0.090 and a bullish breakout, Nokkie has gone sideways for several weeks, while remaining above the prior highs around 0.096.

Signal

A break above a downtrend line could be the first sign that the sideways move is over and the new uptrend is beginning a fresh leg higher.