High impact US financial releases expected

Slew of US data to shake the markets

Market interest is expected to be concentrated on the American session today as we get a slew of high impact financial data. We start with the ADP national employment figure for September which is to deliver the latest picture regarding the US employment market, and also note for inflation August’s PCE rates and for growth the final US GDP rates for Q2. Possible better than expected readings could lift market sentiment and provide some support for the USD and vice versa.

Mixed US equities and some cautiousness

US stock markets tended to send mixed signals yesterday as Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq presented little volatility with different directions. We continue to view the market sentiment as being cautious, which tends to weigh on US equities yet US President Trump’s announcement a “morally bounding” AI agreement with the US tech sector, could provide some support. 

Gold’s price about to end the month in the reds

Gold’s price tended to steady yesterday yet is preparing to end the month in the reds, relenting most of August’s gains. The strengthening of the USD in the FX market, the rise of US bond yields and the markets’ hawkish expectations for the Fed, all tended to weigh on the precious metal’s price. Next big test for gold’s price is the release of the US employment report for September on Friday.

Oil prices edge lower as Gulf oil flow improves

Oil prices dropped yesterday, as a Goldman Sachs report surfaced stating that Gulf oil exports have recovered to the average 2025 levels. Increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz was reported, counterbalancing even the hit on the Saudi East-West pipeline. Further easing of the market’s worries for increased supply from the region could pressure on oil prices even lower.

Other highlights for today

Today we get UK’s final GDP rate for Q2, France’s and Germany’s preliminary HICP rates for September, while ECB Board Member Schnabel, Richmond Fed President Barkin and Fed Board Governor Cook. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Japan’s Tankan indexes for Q3 and Australia’s trade data for August and on a monetary level, the Fed’s Goolsbee and Kashkari speak, while BoJ is to release the summary of opinions for its last meeting and RBA its  Financial Stability Review.

Charts to keep an eye out

USD/JPY edged lower in today’s Asian session, after failing to recover above the 157.50 (R1) resistance line. We maintain a bias for a stabilisation of the pair given that the RSI indicator remains near the reading of 50 implying a rather neutral market sentiment for the pair. Yet the 20 moving average still points southwards and given today’s movement lower we also issue a warning for any possible bearish market tendencies of the pair. Should the bears lead USD/JPY we may see it aiming if not breaching the 155.00 (S1) support line. Should the bulls take over, USD/JPY may break the 157.50 (R1) resistance line, aiming for the 160.50 (R2) resistance base.

WTI dropped yesterday testing the 87.55 (S1) support line. We are still uncertain for the bearish direction of the commodity’s price for the time being, given that the S1 still holds. Yet bearish tendencies are quite possible hence we issue a warning. Should the bears take full control over WTI’s price we may see it breaking the 87.55 (S1) clearly and start aiming for the 82.00 (S2) support level. Should the bulls take over, WTI’s price could reverse yesterday’s losses, break the 94.30 (R1) resistance line and opening the way for the 101.00 (R2) resistance level.

Calendar follows

USD/JPY daily chart

• Support: 155.00 (S1), 152.10 (S2), 149.40 (S3).
• Resistance: 157.50 (R1), 160.50 (R2), 162.80 (R3). 

WTI daily chart

• Support: 87.55 (S1), 82.00 (S2), 76.60 (S3).
• Resistance: 94.30 (R1), 101.00 (R2), 108.85 (R3).