Growth disappointment for Chancellor as GDP and exports suffer fall in April

According to ONS data this morning, the value of goods exports decreased by £2.7 billion (8.8%) in April 2025, with falls in exports to both the EU and non-EU countries. Meanwhile, monthly real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in April 2025.

Exports of goods to the United States fell by £2.0 billion in April 2025, likely linked to the implementation of tariffs on goods imported to the United States.

The total goods and services trade deficit widened by £4.9 billion to £11.5 billion in the three months to April 2025, because of a larger rise in imports than exports.

Today’s data throws a spanner in the works for the Chancellor straight off the back of her Spending Review and worrying labour market data earlier this week.

UK exports dipped in April following the implementation of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ 10% blanket tariff, worsening the UK’s trade deficit. Meanwhile, GDP saw a downturn amid the Chancellor’s new tax regime coming into force.

Whilst global trade tensions appear to be cooling down - aided by the US-China trade truce - and the UK’s trade deal offering a grain of stability, many businesses will still be concerned about increased costs on the horizon as recent inflationary upticks, national insurance tax hikes and continued tariff uncertainty threaten to hamper growth in the months ahead.

In this environment, UK businesses must remain agile. Reviewing FX hedging strategies and ensuring access to flexible finance will be key to navigating what is still a volatile and fast-changing global trade landscape.