Groundhog day

S&P 500 jubilation continued yet another day, but not after repelling some serious downside first. The bears didn‘t meet my key objective of breaking below 3,720s – but bonds weren‘t shining either. Animal spirits were powered by the intraday retreat of the dollar giving up a third of its gains. So, stocks closed in the proximity of where they had been rejected on Tuesday – the low 3,800s – leaving the bears high and dry. And in danger as I‘m looking for still reasonably good non-farm payrolls tomorrow, which would:

(…) thus feed into the „Fed has no reason to stop tightening – there‘s enough leevay still“ narrative, so stocks should understandably decline on such a good news sinking in. Clearly the pivot / pause bets are very premature. At the same time, I‘m looking for relative resiliency in real assets – look how little oil has budged (driven by OPEC+ of course). Gold and cryptos are to dial back their upswing to a much lesser degree than silver, or copper.

What I would like to see (if the bears still have the upper hand, if the Q4 rally hasn‘t started already), is dialing back of the current risk-on sentiment in anticipation of the above paragraph‘s outcome. If that doesn‘t happen to a telling degree in stocks and outside markets during today‘s session, then my hypothesis of an S&P 500 decline below the open short position‘s entry points, is toast. Given the above NFPs dynamics, I‘m willing to let the market prove me right or wrong tomorrow. The other open trades make up for that on the long side amply.

Thus far, stocks are in no-man‘s land between 3,720s and 3,770s, and these same supports and resistances (low 3,800s till 3,820) apply. Today is shaping up to be a relatively calm day in bonds, with commodities barely appreciating – unlike gold and silver, where I‘m looking for daily gains to be slightly more significant than in the CRB Index. This would also increase probability of the market reaction I anticipate tomorrow, which is bonds down, stocks down, dollar up.

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