|

Greenback goes up in smoke as hassett lights the fuse

The dollar didn’t just slip in a sleepy, illiquid Asian session — it detonated. With half the globe still on Easter break and liquidity thinner than rice paper, all it took was one spark — and the entire FX board caught fire. That spark? NEC Director Kevin Hassett throwing Powell back under the bus, confirming that Trump’s still exploring how to remove the Fed Chair, while accusing the central bank of playing partisan politics. Translation for markets? The Fed’s independence just got yanked back into the headlines — and traders wasted no time taking the other side.

The move was swift and brutal. Hedge funds were flooding the Asia efx tape, selling the dollar against anything that wasn’t nailed down. EURUSD exploded to 3-year highs — never mind the fact that Europe’s still economically underwater. The yen? Ripped through 141, posting an 11% rally from the January lows. Meanwhile, gold didn’t just wake up — it went thermonuclear, blowing past $3,370 like last week’s dip was a bad dream.

This wasn’t data-driven — it was pure headline reflex, triggered by the smell of political instability bleeding into monetary credibility. Powell may be staying quiet, but the market isn’t. If the Fed won’t cut, Trump’s strategy is clear: trash the markets until financial conditions ease anyway. That’s not forward guidance — that’s a street brawl between the White House and the Eccles Building.

And here’s where things get interesting: Bitcoin joined the rebellion. Usually, a collapsing dollar signals chaos for crypto — risk-off, carry unwinds, beta selloffs. But this time? BTC surged over $2,000, punching through $87K with its biggest one-day move since "Liberation Day." The BTC-DXY correlation? Snapped like a dry twig. This wasn’t just a breakout — it was a rotation. Gold is screaming policy protest, and now Bitcoin is tagging in as the next anti-fiat weapon.

Because let’s be real — if the dollar keeps disintegrating, the BOJ and ECB won’t just sit there holding the bag. A runaway yen or euro would be economic suicide, and everyone knows it. The moment they retaliate — likely with rate cuts and the resurrection of QE — the next global liquidity flood begins.

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

More from Stephen Innes
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD flatlines below 1.1800 amid trading lull, awaits Fed Minutes

EUR/USD trades around a flatline below 1.1800 in European trading on Tuesday. The pair lacks any trading impetus as the US Dollar moves little amid market caution ahead of the Fed's December Meeting Minutes release, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s 2026 outlook.

GBP/USD retakes 1.3500 despite the year-end grind

GBP/USD finds fresh demand and retakes 1.3500 on Tuesday as markets grind through the last trading week of the year. Despite the latest uptick, the pair is unlikely to see further progress due to the year-end holiday volumes.

Gold holds the bounce on Fed rate cut bets, safe-haven flows

Gold holds the rebound near $4,350 in the European trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal recovers some lost ground after falling 4.5% in the previous session, which was Gold's largest single-day loss since October. Increased margin requirements on gold and silver futures by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, one of the world’s largest trading floors for commodities, prompted widespread profit-taking and portfolio rebalancing.

Tron steadies as Justin Sun invests $18 million in Tron Inc.

Tron (TRX) trades above $0.2800 at press time on Monday, hovering below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.2859.

Economic outlook 2026-2027 in advanced countries: Solidity test

After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).