Great Expectations

LikesMoney Independent Analyst

With the start of a new year I thought that it would be interesting to take a look at some yearly cycles to set some expectations for the coming year.

Oil broke out to a higher monthly high in December, month 10, placing oil in its timing band to seek out a yearly cycle low. A monthly swing high and a break of the monthly trend line will confirm the yearly cycle decline. Therefore we suspect that the intermediate cycle will form as a left translated cycle and fail, leading to the yearly cycle decline. The current daily cycle has a peak on day 19, which begins to shift the likelihood towards a right translated daily cycle formation. So it is likely that oil needs to wait until the next daily cycle before it will begin its yearly cycle decline.

December is month 10 for the yearly equity cycle. A new high on month 10 assures us of a right translated yearly cycle formation. Stocks are now in their timing band for seeking out their yearly cycle low. A monthly swing high accompanied by a break of the monthly trend line will confirm the yearly cycle decline. The earliest that yearly cycle low will print is with the intermediate cycle low. With the intermediate cycle on week 8, that should stretch the yearly cycle out to months 13 or 14.

Steel has printed a bearish monthly reversal. That has eased the parameters for forming a monthly swing high. It is also in its timing band to seek out a yearly cycle low. A break below 37.78 will form a monthly swing high to signal the start of its yearly cycle decline. It looks like steel will need to print one more failed daily cycle to usher in its yearly cycle low.

Despite Friday's bearish close, the Miner's monthly chart looks bullish. The Miners printed a bullish monthly reversal. December was month 11, placing the Miners in their timing band for a yearly cycle low. The bullish monthly reversal eases the parameters for forming a monthly swing low. A break above 22.24 will form a monthly swing low to signal the new yearly cycle. The Miners are currently below the upper monthly cycle band but above the lower monthly cycle band so they remain in a monthly uptrend. The Miners will continue in their monthly uptrend unless they close below the lower monthly cycle band.

Author

LikesMoney

Independent Analyst

Assets (such as stocks, gold, and the dollar) have identifiable cycles.

EUR/USD hits two-day highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD picks up pace and reaches two-day tops around 1.1820 at the end of the week. The pair’s move higher comes on the back of renewed weakness in the US Dollar amid growing talk that the Fed could deliver an interest rate cut as early as March. On the docket, the flash US Consumer Sentiment improves to 57.3 in February.

GBP/USD reclaims 1.3600 and above

GBP/USD reverses two straight days of losses, surpassing the key 1.3600 yardstick on Friday. Cable’s rebound comes as the Greenback slips away from two-week highs in response to some profit-taking mood and speculation of Fed rate cuts. In addition, hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill are also collaborating with the quid’s improvement.

Gold climbs further, focus is back to 45,000

Gold regains upside traction and surpasses the $4,900 mark per troy ounce at the end of the week, shifting its attention to the critical $5,000 region. The move reflects a shift in risk sentiment, driving flows back towards traditional safe haven assets and supporting the yellow metal.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid risk-off, $2.6 billion liquidation wave

Bitcoin edges up above $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as dust from the recent macro-triggered sell-off settles. The leading altcoin, Ethereum, hovers above $1,900, but resistance at $2,000 caps the upside. Meanwhile, Ripple has recorded the largest intraday jump among the three assets, up over 10% to $1.35.

Three scenarios for Japanese Yen ahead of snap election

The latest polls point to a dominant win for the ruling bloc at the upcoming Japanese snap election. The larger Sanae Takaichi’s mandate, the more investors fear faster implementation of tax cuts and spending plans.

XRP rally extends as modest ETF inflows support recovery

Ripple is accelerating its recovery, trading above $1.36 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors adjust their positions following a turbulent week in the broader crypto market. The remittance token is up over 21% from its intraday low of $1.12.