Gold’s relentless ascent: Echoes of the past, warnings for the future

Gold isn’t just climbing—it’s blazing a trail that feels both historic and unnerving. Prices surged another 1% on Tuesday, pulling the $4,000 per ounce marker into clearer view, and extending a run that now sees the metal up 45% this year. In doing so, gold has vaulted past its old inflation-adjusted peak from 1980, scaling above every keen psychological resistance, and pressing higher into uncharted territory.

This isn’t merely about inflation. If it were, the bond market would be sounding alarms with spiking long-dated yields and a steepening curve. Instead, gold’s rise is feeding on a cocktail far stronger—central bank accumulation, capital flight from fiat currencies, and geopolitical hedging that reeks of systemic mistrust.

Not since the chaos of 1979, when investors gave up hope of taming inflation and gold more than doubled in a single year, have we seen such a ferocious and sustained charge. But this isn’t just an inflation panic. Unlike 2011’s rally—fueled by QE-era fear of money printing—this move feels more calculated, more anchored in sovereign choices rather than retail frenzy.

Central banks themselves are underwriting today’s bull run. Countries are deliberately diversifying away from the dollar, not out of mania, but from cold, strategic calculus. Beijing’s decision to open Shanghai as an alternative vault for official reserves is more symbolic than structural, yet it broadcasts a loud truth: any adjustment to the architecture of the global financial system carries with it an implicit bid for gold.

Skeptics point to the relentless strength of U.S. equities, wondering how gold can possibly outrun the Magnificent 7. The answer lies in the hidden scaffolding of both rallies. U.S. shares are flying not purely on fundamentals but on the steady drip of monetary debasement. Last week’s Fed cut was hardly a surprise, but the Chair’s insistence that “there is no risk-free way forward” underscores the fragility of the backdrop. Even as Powell tries to resist political pressure for more aggressive easing, investors sense that money supply is expanding again and fiat credibility is fraying at the edges.

That’s why this isn’t just about traders chasing momentum—it’s about central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and long-horizon investors quietly shifting their compass toward hard collateral. If 1979 was a firestorm of fear, and 2011 was a retail panic wrapped in QE doubt, then 2025 is shaping up as a deliberate recalibration of the global order. The lesson from history is the same: ignore gold’s message at your peril.