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Gold’s long game: The only clock that doesn’t break

There’s a reason the Fed Chair muttered there are “no risk-free paths” anymore. Markets know it. Traders live it. And gold—silent, inert, and unyielding—has been quietly proving it for a quarter century.

The Fed’s job has always been a high-wire act: balancing employment and prices while juggling the torches of leverage, credit, and liquidity. But as every old pit trader would tell you, even the best act eventually drops the clump. The Greenspan era gave us the dotcom bubble, Bernanke the housing inferno, and Powell a decade of money-press confetti. Each time, the Fed “fixes” things not by truly securing the system, but by fiddling with the bolts—tightening a notch here, loosening a notch there—but eventually the whole machine rattles itself apart again.

In that stop-start circus, gold has been the one constant—the timepiece that keeps ticking when the clocks of equities and bonds stop. Since 2000, the S&P has returned 730%, while the Nasdaq has returned 800%. Gold has returned 1,280%. Not through innovation, not through productivity, not through AI or shale or semiconductors, but simply by existing. A lump of metal in a vault outpacing the titans of capitalism.

That’s not just performance; it’s indictment. The dollar has halved in purchasing power over that same stretch—down 92% by the CPI scorecard. In other words, fiat fades while gold hues a steady, shiny lustre.

And here’s the trader’s truth: the complaint doesn’t matter. Moaning about the Fed won’t pay your margin calls. Gold is not some protest vote; it’s a survival strategy. A lifeboat bolted to the deck, not glamorous but priceless when the ship lists.

Does this mean gold is riskless? Hardly. Like every asset, it climbs walls of worry and stumbles down staircases of fear. But unlike equities, its value doesn’t depend on tomorrow’s earnings whisper or the next policy pivot. It depends only on the persistence of human doubt. And doubt, as history shows, never goes out of style.

So the playbook isn’t about worshiping the metal or romanticizing its glow. It’s about respecting its role: not as the star quarterback, but as the clock that never runs out of time. Traders who’ve learned that lesson haven’t gotten rich by complaining—they’ve gotten rich by keeping a hand on the lifeboat even as the orchestra played on deck.

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

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