|

Gold’s long game: The only clock that doesn’t break

There’s a reason the Fed Chair muttered there are “no risk-free paths” anymore. Markets know it. Traders live it. And gold—silent, inert, and unyielding—has been quietly proving it for a quarter century.

The Fed’s job has always been a high-wire act: balancing employment and prices while juggling the torches of leverage, credit, and liquidity. But as every old pit trader would tell you, even the best act eventually drops the clump. The Greenspan era gave us the dotcom bubble, Bernanke the housing inferno, and Powell a decade of money-press confetti. Each time, the Fed “fixes” things not by truly securing the system, but by fiddling with the bolts—tightening a notch here, loosening a notch there—but eventually the whole machine rattles itself apart again.

In that stop-start circus, gold has been the one constant—the timepiece that keeps ticking when the clocks of equities and bonds stop. Since 2000, the S&P has returned 730%, while the Nasdaq has returned 800%. Gold has returned 1,280%. Not through innovation, not through productivity, not through AI or shale or semiconductors, but simply by existing. A lump of metal in a vault outpacing the titans of capitalism.

That’s not just performance; it’s indictment. The dollar has halved in purchasing power over that same stretch—down 92% by the CPI scorecard. In other words, fiat fades while gold hues a steady, shiny lustre.

And here’s the trader’s truth: the complaint doesn’t matter. Moaning about the Fed won’t pay your margin calls. Gold is not some protest vote; it’s a survival strategy. A lifeboat bolted to the deck, not glamorous but priceless when the ship lists.

Does this mean gold is riskless? Hardly. Like every asset, it climbs walls of worry and stumbles down staircases of fear. But unlike equities, its value doesn’t depend on tomorrow’s earnings whisper or the next policy pivot. It depends only on the persistence of human doubt. And doubt, as history shows, never goes out of style.

So the playbook isn’t about worshiping the metal or romanticizing its glow. It’s about respecting its role: not as the star quarterback, but as the clock that never runs out of time. Traders who’ve learned that lesson haven’t gotten rich by complaining—they’ve gotten rich by keeping a hand on the lifeboat even as the orchestra played on deck.

Author

Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes

SPI Asset Management

With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.

More from Stephen Innes
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD: Sellers attack 1.1700 as USD stages a solid comeback

EUR/USD attacks 1.1700 amid heavy selling interest in the European trading hours on Wednesday. A solid comeback staged by the US Dollar weighs heavily on the pair, as traders look to USD short covering ahead of US CPI on Thursday. However, the downside could be capped by hawkish ECB expectations. 

GBP/USD slides toward 1.3300 after softer-than-expected UK inflation data

GBP/USD has come under intense selling pressure, eyeing 1.3300 in the European session on Wednesday. The UK annual headline and core CPI rose by 3.2% each, missing estimates of 3.5% and 3.4%, respectively, reaffirming dovish BoE expectations and smashing the Pound Sterling across the board. 

Gold: Bulls await breakout through multi-day-old range amid Fed rate cut bets

Gold attracts fresh buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it remains confined in a multi-day-old trading range amid mixed fundamental cues. The global risk sentiment remains on the defensive amid economic woes and fears of the AI bubble burst. Moreover, dovish US Federal Reserve expectations lend support to the non-yielding yellow metal, though a modest US Dollar uptick might cap any further appreciating move.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple extend correction as bearish momentum builds

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple remain under pressure as the broader market continues its corrective phase into midweek. The weak price action of these top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization suggests a deeper correction, as momentum indicators are beginning to tilt bearish.

Ukraine-Russia in the spotlight once again

Since the start of the week, gold’s price has moved lower, but has yet to erase the gains made last week. In today’s report we intend to focus on the newest round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, whilst noting the release of the US Employment data later on day and end our report with an update in regards to the tensions brewing in Venezuela.

AAVE slips below $186 as bearish signals outweigh the SEC investigation closure

Aave (AAVE) price continues its decline, trading below $186 at the time of writing on Wednesday after a rejection at the key resistance zone. Derivatives positioning and momentum indicators suggest that bearish forces still dominate in the near term.