Gold today: 3 analysts see more downside, but one calls it a buying opportunity

Gold (XAU/USD) is trying to steady after hitting a 13-month low near $3,850, and three analyses agree the short-term pressure is not over. RoboForex and FXStreet's Sagar Dua both see rebounds being sold as hot US inflation, hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) talk and a firm US Dollar (USD) weigh on the yellow metal. Money Metals' Mike Maharrey is also bearish in the short and medium term, but he breaks from the pack on the bigger picture, arguing the Fed may not be able to keep raising rates and that lower prices could be an opportunity for long-term investors.

RoboForex: Sellers retain the advantage

The RoboForex Analysis Department links Gold's slide to fears of persistent US inflation and expectations of further rate hikes, with US President Donald Trump's comment that the US does not need an agreement with Iran pushing Oil prices higher and adding to inflation concerns. On the 4-hour chart, the downward structure remains intact after the reversal from $4,147, with Gold trading around $3,899, below resistance at $3,963. Its baseline scenario is a retest of $3,852, and consolidation below that level would open the way towards $3,777. "Until such confirmation, rebounds are viewed as corrective, and the downside remains the priority," the analysts wrote, noting that only a return above the $3,960 area would weaken the short-term bearish view. — Read the full report

FXStreet's Sagar Dua: Rallies are still being capped

Sagar Dua sees Gold's bounce to near $3,915 as likely short-lived. He traces the sell-off to Fed Governor Christopher Waller's conditional backing of a half-point December hike if October core CPI printed at 0.3% or higher, which it did. Dua also cites ANZ, which links the break below $3,900 to rising energy costs, stronger data, higher bond yields and a US Dollar above 103.00, and warned that "the Fed could even go for 50bp rate hikes in December." Renewed US-Iran tensions add to the risk of higher inflation expectations. Technically, Gold stays below the 20-day EMA at $4,031.39, and a failure to hold $3,850 would expose $3,800 and $3,700. — Read the full report

Money Metals' Mike Maharrey: Lower prices as a potential buying opportunity

Mike Maharrey agrees that expectations of higher rates are the immediate pressure on Gold, and he described himself as short-term and midterm bearish on the metal. But he questions whether the Fed can keep tightening with US government debt above $40 trillion, saying the central bank is "caught between fighting inflation and protecting a debt-heavy economy." He points to M2 money supply growth of 5.7% in the year to September and a rising Fed balance sheet, and expects rate cuts and renewed money creation if a crisis follows. Until the Iran war's direction is clearer or markets accept that the Fed may be unable to keep raising rates, he sees Gold under pressure, but views weakness as a chance for long-term buyers. — Read the full report

The takeaway

All three analysts expect more near-term pressure on Gold, and the two technical views converge on $3,850 as the line to watch, with $3,777 (RoboForex) and $3,800–$3,700 (Dua) as the next targets. The disagreement is about what comes after: Maharrey argues the Fed's tightening has limits and that the metal's long-term case is intact. Watch today's US October Producer Price Index (PPI), expected at 6.6% year-on-year for the headline and 5.0% for the core. A strong print would add to December hike bets and test the $3,850 floor again.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)