Nvidia CEO drives market down

USD: Dec '26 is Up at 103.160.

Energies: Dec '26 Crude is Down at 88.26.

Financials: The Dec '26 30 Year T-Bond Lower by 12 ticks and trading at 105.18

Indices: The Dec '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 56 ticks Higher and trading at 7629.25

Gold: The Dec'26 Gold contract is trading Up at 3894.10.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, but the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Lower. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Up which is not correlated with the US dollar trading Up. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded Mixed. Europe is trading Mixed as well.  

Possible challenges to traders 

• Core PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• PPI is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• FOMC Member Collins Speaks at 9 AM EST. Major.
• FOMC Member Logan Speaks at 9:40 AM EST. Major.
• Nat Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. Major.
• FOMC Members Bowman Speaks at 10:50 AM EST. Major.
• FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 12 noon EST. Major.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the two-year dived Lower at around 8 AM EST with no news pending.  The Dow climbed Higher at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT dived Lower at around 8 AM EST and the Dow climbed Higher around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Short opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Dec '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Dec 26 - 11/12/26

Dow - Dec 2026- 11/12/26

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets a Downside bias and teh markets didn't disappoint as the Dow dropped 189 points and th eother indices closed Lower as well.  Today we aren'r dealing with a correlated market and our bias is Mixed.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

The Nvidia scandal finally comes home to roost as the CEO resigned this scandal became too much to deal with.  Ready to use Market Correlation to make you a better trader?