We were turning more cautious on the gold bull run [Video]

Richard Perry Independent Analyst

Gold

We were turning more cautious on the gold bull run yesterday as technical studies (RSI and Bollinger Bands) point to overstretched conditions. The reaction into the close yesterday poses a lot of questions now. Losing -$15 from the day high of $1580 the market has formed a highly questionable positive close. A small positive candlestick body after a failed run higher leaves the market in a tricky position. There is a gap still open at $1553 which needs to be filled, but a closing of the gap could trigger some deeper retracement of the bull run. Today’s early move hints of consolidation. After such a strong run higher, the market is unlikely to now simply hover. A loss of traction significantly increases the potential for a profit-taking near term corrective move. The hourly chart shows the 21 hour moving average now taking on a basis of support (currently around $1559). The bulls need to continue their run higher to prevent a slide back. Given the initial bounce off $1555 this morning, a failure under a near term pivot at $1570 followed by a breach of $1555 would be a negative signal. A close under $1553 opens $1540.

Author

Richard Perry

Independent Analyst

EUR/USD weakens as US jobs data trims Fed rate cut bets

The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near 1.1860 during the early European session on Thursday. Traders will keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. On Friday, the attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index inflation report.

GBP/USD bullish outlook prevails above 1.3600, UK GDP data looms

The GBP/USD pair gains ground near 1.3635, snapping the two-day losing streak during the early European session on Thursday. The preliminary reading of UK Gross Domestic Product for the fourth quarter will be closely watched later on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to grow 0.2% QoQ in Q4, versus 0.1% in Q1.

Gold remains on the defensive below two-week top; lacks bearish conviction amid mixed cues

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses through the Asian session on Thursday, though it lacks follow-through selling and remains close to a nearly two-week high, touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades above the $5,070 level, down just over 0.20% for the day, amid mixed cues.

UK GDP set to post weak growth as markets rise bets on March rate cut

Markets will be watching closely on Thursday, when the United Kingdom’s Office for National Statistics will release the advance estimate of Q4 Gross Domestic Product. If the data land in line with consensus, the UK economy would have continued to grow at an annualised pace of 1.2%, compared with 1.3% recorded the previous year.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.