Gold surges above $3,600 on Ukraine conflict, Dollar weakness, and labor market concerns

Gold (XAUUSD) has surged to record highs as rising geopolitical risks, bond market stress, and weak U.S. economic data fueled demand for safe-haven assets. In particular, renewed conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified geopolitical risks, adding momentum to gold’s rally. Meanwhile, a steep bond selloff and disappointing labor data added pressure on the Dollar, lifting gold above key resistance. As the Fed pauses public communication before its next meeting, inflation data becomes the key driver for gold’s outlook.

Gold rises sharply on war escalation, weak labor data, and Dollar pressure

Gold maintained its upward trajectory, driven by global tensions and rising safe-haven interest. Despite U.S. markets being closed for Labor Day, gold began the week with solid gains. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions intensified after Russia struck 14 regions in Ukraine, prompting Ukraine to retaliate by hitting Russian oil refineries. As a result, the renewed conflict drove investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset.

Gold extended higher, breaking past $3,500 as market stress deepened across global bond markets. A steep selloff in bonds, fueled by fiscal concerns in the UK, intensified the flight to safety and lifted the metal. Afterward, gold gained further momentum when disappointing U.S. job openings data pressured the Dollar, sending prices above $3,570.

Furthermore, ongoing labor market softness raised concerns about the U.S. economy, strengthening the case for gold as a risk-off asset. Initial jobless claims rose to 237,000, while ADP reported only 54,000 new private-sector jobs in August, well below expectations. In the absence of further Fed guidance before the September meeting, markets are now focused on inflation data. A core CPI reading above 0.5% could strengthen the Dollar and cap gold’s rally. Conversely, if the data meets or falls short of expectations, gold’s bullish momentum is likely to continue.

Gold climbs within an ascending channel, eyes $4,000 breakout target

The gold chart below shows that the price is trading within a well-defined ascending channel that began in late 2024. Gold ended its four-month consolidation by moving decisively above the $3,500 level. This move triggered a sharp upside rally, confirming a shift in momentum and a renewed bullish trend.

The resistance level held firm since April 2025, but sustained demand eventually pushed prices higher. As a result, gold not only cleared this barrier but also accelerated higher, confirming the strength behind the breakout. Furthermore, a well-formed ascending pattern is visible, with defined trend boundaries supporting a sustained upward move.

Gold climbed toward the $3,600 mark after breaking above key resistance. The move sets the stage for a potential rally toward the $4,000–$4,100 zone. This aligns with the upper boundary of the long-term channel and suggests more upside if momentum holds. In addition, the move also aligns with the neckline of a larger ascending structure, reinforcing the bullish setup. As long as gold holds above $3,500, the outlook remains bullish, with the next key resistance near $3,700. However, a drop below the breakout zone could prompt a pullback toward support near $3,480.

Gold price outlook: $4,000 target in sight if CPI supports rally

Gold has confirmed a major breakout, fueled by geopolitical tensions, labor market softness, and heightened safe-haven demand. As the metal trades near record highs above $3,600, the absence of Fed commentary during the blackout period shifts market focus toward upcoming U.S. inflation data. A cooler CPI print could reinforce bullish momentum and drive prices toward the $4,000–$4,100 target zone, supported by a strong technical structure. However, if inflation data exceeds forecasts, gold could see a brief pullback, with $3,500 serving as a key support zone.

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