Gold & Silver recovery gains momentum, but confirmation is needed; Elliott Wave intraday analysis

It is increasingly possible that the recent correction in metals has ended following the strong rebound in miners, although it is still too early to confirm. We ideally need to see five waves higher from the lows, while so far we have only identified three. The current price action could be developing into the final stages of wave C or wave 3, followed by a wave 4 correction and another wave 5 higher, which would provide stronger confirmation of a bullish reversal. However, any strong and impulsive decline from current levels would suggest that the correction is still underway.

Gold

Gold remains in recovery mode and is now testing previous highs. The price action is increasingly suggesting wave (3) rather than wave (C), although the wave (C) scenario should still be considered.

Gold could still be completing wave 5 of a lower-degree impulse, so the next decline should provide more clarity. If we see a slow, choppy and overlapping pullback toward the 4357–4300 support area, it would ideally represent wave (4) of an ongoing five-wave bullish impulse. Such a structure would also provide confirmation of a bullish reversal on the higher time frames.

On the other hand, a strong and impulsive five-wave decline below 4200 would suggest that wave (C) of the larger ABC correction has completed, keeping the bearish scenario in control.

Silver

Silver also remains in recovery mode, with the current structure increasingly favoring wave 3 rather than wave C, as price has already extended into the Fibonacci cluster target area for wave 3.

The broader risk-on environment, supported by bullish stocks and a weaker US Dollar, could be contributing to a larger bullish reversal in metals. In the short term, Silver may still be advancing within subwave “v” of a lower-degree impulse.

However, traders should watch for a potential slowdown around 67.00, where a wave 4 correction toward the 64.00–63.00 support zone could develop before another move higher.

Risk-On Environment Supports Metals

The broader market backdrop remains important. Stocks are still bullish, and this strong risk-on environment is increasingly supporting metals as well. Further gains in equities, combined with additional weakness in the US Dollar, could allow Gold and Silver to extend their recoveries.

Treasuries could also be approaching a potential temporary support within the final leg of a diagonal formation. If that support holds and Treasuries rebound, it could provide another supportive factor for metals.

For now, the key is to monitor the next corrective pullback. A slow and overlapping decline would favor a bullish continuation, while a strong impulsive selloff would warn that the larger correction is not yet finished.